The main goal of transport companies is to improve work efficiency while ensuring public safety and taking into account the non-transport effect. This type of effect is most closely related to the quality of transport services, which, in the face of increased competition between transport companies, is becoming one of the main factors in the sustainability of carrier enterprises and terminal service facilities. It is advisable to take into account the non-transport effect when comparing competing modes of transport, as well as when substantiating the mechanism of state regulation of the transportation market at the municipal and regional levels. The article discusses the concept of the “non-transport effect” in railway transport and describes the causes and cases of its occurrence. Classification of types of non-transport effects is given, and its components are considered. Formulas for calculating the overall non-transport effect are presented, which allow for saving material and labor resources in the process of transportation. The methodological bases for developing a system of criteria for the non-transport effect of the development of railway transport have been formed. The measures that bring the greatest non-transport effect on railway transport enterprises are described. The types of effects that need to be calculated using the direct counting method and based on economic and statistical models are analyzed. A matrix of paired correlation coefficients between indicators characterizing the regions' socio-economic level of development is given.
Modern society needs a constant increase in the volume of transport services and an improvement in the reliability, safety, and quality of transportation of people and goods. Transport issues are complex and spread across various areas of regulation and management. Therefore, the modeling in managing the non-transport effect is significant for developing a strategy for the development of transport companies (Razvadovskaya et al., 2016).
Transport is an intersectoral complex that ensures the material exchange of goods and services between economic entities of the market and interpersonal relations of the population (Tereshina et al., 2002). Railway transport has an impact on almost all branches of material production with which it interacts since it carries out the transportation process and is a tool for creating favorable conditions for the development of the country's economy, as well as for improving the quality of life of the population (Zabnenkov & Moysievich, 2012). To assess the economic efficiency of investments in railway transport, it is also necessary to evaluate the accompanying and associated effects, that is, the non-transport effect.
The non-transport effect is managed at the level of administrative-territorial entities, which allows, on the one hand, to establish clear territorial boundaries for the formation of non-transport effects, and, on the other hand, to take into account multiplier effects. In turn, the transformation of these effects makes it possible to increase the objectivity of their feasibility studies due to more complete consideration of all factors that determine the national economic significance of these projects. The problem of assessing the non-transport effect was reflected in the works of scientists A.P. Abramov, V.N. Obraztsov, I.V. Belov, V.A. Persianov, M.F. Trikhunkov, V.N. Livshits, Yu.I. Sokolov, V.G. Galaburda, I.M. Lavrov, N.P. Tereshina, V.A. Podsorin, A.V. Ryshkov and P.V. Kurenkov.
According to Sokolov Yu.I., Galaburda V.G., Lavrov I.M., Anikeeva-Naumenko L.O., and Averyanova O.A.: “The non-transport effect is defined as benefits, associated effects or losses obtained in various areas of the socio-economic life of society as a result of the use of a particular mode of transport and various transport technologies, but not reflected in the financial performance of transport enterprises” (Sokolov, Galaburda et al., 2018).
The non-transport effect contributes to the preservation of the life and health of the population, the production of additional products, the reduction of production costs, the saving of passenger travel time, and other results in various areas of human life and society (Sokolov, Lavrov et al., 2018).
The classification of the types of non-transport effects arising from the improvement of transport is diverse (Table 01).
The non-transport effect of the functioning and development of transport in the region includes the savings in social costs for the production and transportation of products, as well as other types of economic, social, or other effects that occur in transport or beyond (Nunes et al., 2019). The non-transport effect consists of two groups of interrelated components (Table 02).
The economic components of the non-transport effect include the results of the implementation of innovative and investment projects and are taken into account when conducting a comprehensive assessment of efficiency (Kuzina, 2012). However, the unreliable operation of transport and the lack of convenient transport support can lead to losses, which are a lost non-transport effect; it can only be implemented with the optimal development of the country's transport system (Drozdov et al., 2021).
Purpose of the Study
The purpose of the article is to calculate the algorithm for managing the non-transport effect based on economic and statistical models in relation to railway transport enterprises.
In the study process, the scientific method of multi-step regression analysis, direct calculation, system analysis, and technical and economic calculations were used.
The calculation of the total non-transport effect as a result of transport measures can be made using formula (1), which most fully characterizes the effects and damages arising outside the transport sector as a result of transport measures:
∆Enon-transp = ΔIworkcap + ΔCtranspcost + ΔSacc + ΔSstock + ΔSloss + ΔIprop + ΔEsoc – Dtransp (1)
where ΔIworkcap is savings of working capital of enterprises;
ΔCtranspcost is the reduction in the share of transport costs in the price of sales of products;
ΔSacc is the savings in production current costs caused by the acceleration of production, capital turnover, and the development of natural resources;
ΔSstock is the cost savings on storage of stocks of material resources;
ΔSloss is the cost savings associated with the reduction of cargo losses, the introduction of specialized rolling stock, container, and package transportation;
ΔIprop is an increase in profits of property owners due to the development of transport infrastructure;
ΔEsoc is the social effect received by passengers from improving the operation of transport and the quality of their service;
Dtransp is the cost associated with the elimination of damage from the measures of transport.
The effect of improving the quality of life and management in the region (non-transport effect) is calculated using formula 2 (Makeev & Mamaev, 2006):
ΔE(in) = ΔE(G) + ΔE(T) + ΔE(I) + ΔE(P), (2)
where ΔE (G) is the effect of the growth of the gross regional product;
ΔE (T) is the effect of improved transport accessibility;
ΔE (I) is the effect of increasing the area of the territory;
ΔE (P) is the effect of population increase.
The non-transport effect can be calculated in the current conditions of transport operation when justifying the effect of introducing new transportation technologies, switching to new modes of transport, introducing high-speed traffic, and improving the quality of customer transport services (Vakulenko et al., 2021). The quality of transport provision criteria is higher, the better all other things being equal, the road and rail links are developed (Mavrin et al., 2018). The methodological foundations for developing a strategy of criteria for assessing the quality of transport provision in railway transport are shown in Figure 01.
The measures that bring the greatest non-transport effect on railway transport enterprises are shown in Figure 02.
At present, the following indicators characterizing the socio-economic level of their development can be used to assess the non-transport effect:
- Y1 is the volume of the gross regional product, million rubles;
- Y2 is the cost of core funds of all industries, million rubles;
- Y3 is the volume of agricultural production, million rubles;
- Y4 is the volume of products, works, or services of small enterprises, million rubles;
- Y5 is wholesale trade, million rubles;
- Y6 is retail trade, million rubles;
- Y7 is the volume of paid services to the population, million rubles;
- Y8 is fixed investments, million rubles;
- Y9 is fixed investments with the participation of foreign capital, million rubles;
- Y10 is the foreign trade volume, million dollars;
- Y11 is traffic accidents per 100 thousand people;
- Y12 is the number of road accident victims per 100 thousand people;
- Y13 is incidence per 1000 people;
- Y14 is per capita monthly incomes, rubles;
- Y15 is the number of vehicles per 1000 people.
The direct calculation method is recommended to be applied primarily to those types of economic and social effects, the formation of which is directly related to specific transport and operational parameters of the road structure being designed.
These should include reducing the need of enterprises and organizations for working capital, the loss of time spent by passengers on the road, and the losses from road accidents.
Based on economic and statistical models, provided that the region where the projected road object is located is included in the set for which these models were built, it is necessary to calculate the following types of effects:
- multiplier (from the increase in the gross regional product);
- in agriculture;
- in trade;
- in the improving the investment climate;
- in the healthcare system;
- in the process of improving the welfare of the population.
At the same time, it was found that the types of non-transport effects presented in Table 03 can be set to a potentially possible change in each of the above indicators.
Some of the indicators characterizing these effects may turn out to be interdependent, i. e., be very closely related to each other. The pair correlation coefficients between them were calculated to test them for multicollinearity, the matrix of which is given in Table 04 (Rosavtodor, 2018).
As can be seen from Table 4, between indicators Y1 (volume of the gross regional product) and Y2 (cost of core funds of all industries), Y1 and Y10 (foreign trade volume), Y2 and Y10, Y4 (volume of products, works or services of small enterprises) and Y6 (retail trade), Y4 and Y7 (volume of paid services to the population), Y 6 and Y7 have strong correlations (correlation coefficient over 0.8). This indicates the inexpediency of their joint consideration as possible measures of the varieties of the non-transport effect (highlighted in Table 04).
The given economic and statistical dependencies are made by a method of multistage regression analysis. Indicators that determine the socio-economic level of region development (Y1, Y3, Y5, Y6, Y8, Y9, Y11, Y12, Y13, Y14, Y15) were taken alternately as dependent variables. The major problem with the non-transport effect is that not all indicators can be thought of in terms of cost, and the effect size can only be estimated. It can be concluded that a complete transition to economic and statistical modeling of socio-economic indicators of regional development can be carried out only if there are sufficiently reliable regression relationships. Such dependencies must be established using dynamic models.
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23 December 2022
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Vasilenko, M. A., Kuzina, E. L., Tagiltseva, J. A., Drozdov, N. A., Poltorak, A. V., & Rakhaev, V. A. (2022). Algorithm For Managing The Non-Transport Effect At Railway Transport Enterprises. In D. K. Bataev, S. A. Gapurov, A. D. Osmaev, V. K. Akaev, L. M. Idigova, M. R. Ovhadov, A. R. Salgiriev, & M. M. Betilmerzaeva (Eds.), Knowledge, Man and Civilization- ISCKMC 2022, vol 129. European Proceedings of Social and Behavioural Sciences (pp. 1223-1231). European Publisher. https://doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2022.12.156