Development Of Principles Of Risk Assessment In Implementation Of Innovative Projects

Identification of risks of innovatively active organizations

In modern world and Russian practice, the innovation development process is implemented mainly in the form of projects. Innovation projects are a set of interrelated activities aimed at achieving objectives in the field of creating or modernizing innovations within the established time frame, taking into account a pre-approved and economically sound budget.

Innovative activity is characterized by an increased level of risk in the face of uncertainty in the implementation of projects. Analysis of the annual reports of some innovatively active organizations (“Mikron” PJSC, “VASO” PJSC, “Sukhoi Company” PJSC, etc.) based on the results of 2017 allowed us to identify the main risk factors (National innovation Russian Report, 2017). According to the results of the analysis, it is advisable to group potential risks as follows:

• economic risks, which include: changes in legislation (currency, tax, customs), inflation, growth in exchange rates, a change in the licensing procedure;

• foreign economic risks, which mainly include the impact of international sanctions against Russia;

• technological risks associated with the rapid global development of science and technology, technological complexity of production, deterioration of production equipment;

• market risks associated with increased competition in the domestic market, changes in working conditions with counterparties;

• financial risks associated with financial difficulties in carrying out the operational activities of organizations.

Identification of risks arising from the implementation of innovative projects

Implementation of innovative projects is associated with risks of project activities and innovative activities, which can arise linearly and predictably (for example, failure to meet the project deadlines), and combine to create new and little-studied areas of uncertainty (Paula, Silva, & Cortimiglia, 2017). In the implementation of innovative projects, in the development and implementation of the results of scientific activities in production, the most expected occurrence of the following risks.

Risks of project activities:

• inaccuracy of the project objectives;

• lack of involvement and lack of motivation of staff to achieve the goals of the innovation project;

• organizational errors (financial, economic, logistic) in the process of project management;

• unrealistically set deadlines for the project;

• economically unjustified project budget;

• inefficient use of project management tools;

• knowledge, abilities, skills of the project team do not correspond to the planned level of project implementation;

• overestimation of events that may occur with a low probability of occurrence, and underestimation of events that may occur with a high probability of occurrence.

Risks arising from the commercialization of innovation:

• lack of demand for the technology in the market;

• errors in the process of conducting a patent search;

• implementation and realization of the project, the planned results of which are not new to the market;

• loss of exclusive rights to the technology;

• inefficient use of attracted financing in the process of commercialization;

• similar products on the market with better technological properties.

Thus, the basic principles of risk management of project innovation activities are based on a reasonable and reliable identification of risks that affect the development of the business as a whole, risks of project activities and risks arising from the commercialization of innovations.

Description of the basic principles of risk management of innovative projects

The practical implementation of the risk assessment mechanism should be based on the following principles of risk management of innovative projects.

1. The principle of strategic unity of goals and objectives in the field of project management and project risks.

It is advisable to develop a risk management strategy at the same time as the organization’s overall development strategy and regularly update and supplement it. Based on the strategic provisions of the organization’s risk management for each project, it is necessary to prepare a project risk management procedure with a description of the decision-making approach in various cases of risk occurrence, a description of the process of making the necessary calculations and approaches to assessing the probability values of risk occurrence. The project risk management procedure should be developed taking into account the interconnections of strategic goals, project goals, as well as probabilistic risks and uncertainties. The main objective of the procedure is to prepare a clear, logically structured mechanism for managing project risks, which each project participant will be able to use and implement in their activities.

2. The principle of identification of project risks.

The risk identification process leads to the development of a list of risks that may affect the project. For the further risk management process, it is advisable to carry out an aggregate assessment of the list of risks, to determine the likelihood of risk and to quantitatively assess the degree of risk impact on the project. SWOT analysis is an effective tool for managing external and internal factors affecting the development of a project, aimed at assessing opportunities and threats and, therefore, identifying risks. The tool should be used to analyze the causes of risks, both external and internal. It must be borne in mind that the development of an innovative project is influenced by the economic activity of the enterprise, and the degree of influence can be evaluated as a positive or a negative factor.

3. The principle of reducing the likelihood of risks.

Simulation is an effective, but difficult to implement project management tool, the application of the methods of which allows you to make the most rational decision, taking into account the least likelihood of risk factors. Conducting experiments to develop commercialization scenarios is a labor-intensive process with a high level of additional costs, building simulations using specialized software will allow you to simulate the state of the system with the least financial cost. The PMBOK project management guide (PMBOK guide. An American national standart, 2008) contains a section on risk management. The Guidelines identify the main cause of risks, which is uncertainty. This means that if the risk was determined in advance during the planning of the project, it means that the set of measures that should be taken in case of risk was also determined in advance. If the risk has not been determined in advance, then its occurrence can lead to large losses on the project, since the response was not planned, and its degree of impact was not evaluated from a financial and economic point of view. Thus, the construction of simulation models and their analysis leads to a decrease in the likelihood of a previously identified risk.

4. The principle of constructing a risk management algorithm for innovative projects.

The implementation of the risk management program begins simultaneously with the launch of the project. Using modern software allows you to control the occurrence of risk events, but these events must be predefined. Accordingly, the risk management process does not stop throughout the entire life cycle of the project, in the event of pre-planned events, it is advisable to respond to them in accordance with the risk management procedure, in the event of unplanned events, decisions to reduce the risk level should be made at the strategic management level.

Management of innovative projects is a multi-level structure with various implementation scenarios, which implies the adoption of complex, complex decisions. In the process of project implementation, various economic tools are used (often including the use of a complex mathematical apparatus), which include: methods of planning, forecasting, analysis and evaluation of economic efficiency and others.

When implementing innovative activities, it is advisable to consider project activity as a multi-level process aimed at achieving the goal. The proposed method for assessing the risks of an innovative project is based on the implementation of the algorithm (Figure 2 ), which is advisable to carry out at three levels of management – the strategic, tactical and operational levels of implementation of the innovative project.

The strategic level of decision-making is long-term in nature and determines the development of the project activities of the organization to achieve the strategic, long-term goals of the organization. At a strategic level, the portfolio of innovative projects based on analytical data is approved and planned, decisions are made on the sources of financing for projects, priorities for project activities are developed, principles of corporate social responsibility are developed. From the point of view of risk assessment, at the strategic level, the formation of a risk management strategy, verification of the planned activities taking into account compliance with project goals and strategic goals of the organization as a whole.

At the tactical level, decisions are made on how to achieve the goals set at the strategic level, what tools should be used and what resources to attract in the medium term. At the tactical level, the main processes are taking place regarding compliance with the accepted procedures, identification, assessment and planning of risks takes place, the state of the project system is monitored when risks arise.

The operational level of decision-making is of a short-term, daily nature of solving various problems – daily observance of the terms and objectives of the project. Business processes at the operational level are predominantly automated in nature (Dubitskaya & Tcukanova, 2018).

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Thus, the basic principles of risk management of an innovative project can be formalized in the proposed management algorithm. Traditionally, the risk management process is a linear process, the practical implementation of a three-level mechanism will allow a comprehensive approach to the issues of risk management, taking into account the interests of each participant in the innovation project.