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Predictive Analytics In Single-Industry Town Risk Management

Table 2:

Sought answer Predictors Predictor data source
Number of residents of TOSER/volume of investments OKVED codes in the TOSER creation program The program (project) for the creation of TOSER (municipal authorities of the city)
Benefits for residents (income tax)
Benefits to residents (property tax)
Benefits for residents (land tax)
PFR insurance premiums
SIF insurance premiums
FCMIF insurance premiums
VAT refund procedure
Inspections by supervisors (days) City supervisory authorities
Registration procedure (months) municipal authorities of the city, statistics, expert assessments of entrepreneurs working in the city
Infrastructure connection procedure (months)
Availability of resources in a single-industry town (number of procedures required to connect on an ongoing basis to the power supply system, units; length of period for obtaining permission to build industrial and (or) technological facilities, days; level of competition in the credit market, points; presence of administrative barriers and excessive regulation of business, points; the number of credit organizations operating in the territory, units; the number of branches of credit organizations operating in the territory, units, average monthly nominal gross salary of employees of enterprises and organizations in a single-industry town, rubles, share of the informal sector in total employment,%)
Land use benefits
The availability of qualified personnel in the city (labor force, structure of the employed population, average annual number of employees by type of economic activity, level of employment, unemployment rate) Statistical bodies
The presence and characteristics of infrastructure in the city (the amount of financing for the development of infrastructure from budgets of various levels, rubles; the number of constructed and commissioned infrastructure facilities, units; the density of public roads with hard surface, km; the share of free capacity of infrastructure facilities; total capacity of heat supply facilities put into operation, Gcal; total capacity of water supply facilities put into operation, cubic meters/hour; total capacity of wastewater disposal facilities put into operation, cubic meters/hour; total capacity of gas supply facilities put into operation, cubic meters/hour; total capacity of electricity supply facilities put into operation, MW; the share of completely worn out fixed assets by type of economic activity “Production and Distribution of Electricity, Gas and Water”,%; the share of completely worn out fixed assets by type of economic activity “Transport and Communications”,%; qualitative assessment of the level of significance of problems in the development of transport, energy, engineering, housing and social infrastructure in the development of a single-industry town (high, medium, low)*; free land for enterprises; housing commissioning volume) Statistical authorities, municipal authorities, expert assessments
The level of development of small and medium enterprises in a single-industry town (number of small and medium enterprises, units; structure of small and medium enterprises by type of economic activity; number of start-ups and spinoffs, units; number of employees in small businesses, people; number of small and medium-sized enterprises entrepreneurship per 10 thousand people, units; share of the average number of employees of small and medium enterprises (without external part-time workers) in the average number of employees (without external part-time workers) of all enterprises and organizations share,%; the share of tax revenues from small businesses in the revenue of the city budget, %)
Region's investment climate (rating) National rating of the investment climate in the regions of the Russian Federation (Agency for Strategic Initiatives), rating of investment attractiveness of the regions of the Russian Federation (National Rating Agency), etc..
The level of development of the production potential of a single-industry town (number of large and medium enterprises, units; structure of enterprises by type of economic activity; turnover of medium and large organizations per capita; volume of goods shipped per capita; investment in fixed assets; number of issued building permits; number of issued permits for commissioning; the total revenue of enterprises from the sale of non-oil products in the domestic and foreign markets; the share of small and medium-sized innovative companies in a single-industry town) Statistical bodies, municipal authorities
The level of diversification of the economy of the region, city (the number of organizations (enterprises) by type of economic activity; the share of gross value added in the total amount by region (city) by type of economic activity; per capita production rates for individual product groups; localization coefficients; Herfindahl - Hirschman index) Statistical bodies, municipal authorities, calculated indicators according to statistics
Scientific and technical potential of a single-industry town (number of personnel of enterprises and organizations engaged in research and development, people; share in the total number of personnel of enterprises and organizations engaged in research and development,%; number of graduated bachelors, specialists, masters, people; number of professional training institutions within a radius of 30 km from the city (cluster), units; number of engineers, people; number of scientists, people; availability, quantity and characteristics of laboratory equipment for R&D; incomes of universities from all sources per one scientific and pedagogical worker; indicators of financing fundamental research work (R&D), rubles; indicators of financing R&D, where the topics determined by the state task prevail, rubles; share of employees with higher education ,%; share of employees with secondary specialized education,%; number of employees with higher and secondary education, people). Statistical bodies, municipal authorities
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