Labor Resources Management In Regions With Natural Population Decline And Migration Outflow

Abstract

The problems of human resource management in the regions with natural loss and migration outflow of the population in the Russian Federation are largely due to the demographic situation in the country. According to Rosstat forecasts, the year 2036 will also see a decrease in the population of Russia. At the same time, the projected migration increase due to external migration will not compensate for the negative value of the natural population growth. In recent years, there has been a change in the pattern of migration behaviour of the population of Russia. The management of labor migration is an important task of managing labor resources of the regions due to the lack of natural population growth in Russia at present and in the future. Managing labor resources implies the development of mechanisms and tools for effective regulation of regional labor migration. Disproportionality of the levels of socio-economic development of regions is observed in many countries. However, in Russia, the differentiation is significant even within a single federal district and is huge across the country. Obviously, even today, the joint actions taken by the federal executive authorities, the state authorities of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and the local governments have so far failed to balance the socio-economic development of the regions. It is necessary to overcome regional differences in incomes of the population and the level of differences in social infrastructure to optimize the direction of internal migration of the population.

Keywords: Labor resourcesmigrationregional labor migration

Introduction

Demographic situation in the Russian Federation

Problems of human resource management in regions with natural decline and migration outflow of the population in the Russian Federation are largely due to the demographic situation in the country.

At the end of the twentieth century, the country entered a period of population decline (Figure 01 ).

Figure 1: The population of the Russian Federation in 1990 - 2018 (at the beginning of the year)
The population of the Russian Federation in 1990 - 2018 (at the beginning of the year)
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Figure 01 shows that the population of the Russian Federation from 1991 to 2018 decreased from 148.3 to 146.9 million people. It should be borne in mind that the Crimea peninsula with a population of 2.3 million people entered the Russian Federation in 2014. The decline in the population of the country occurred before 2011. From 2012 to 2018 an increase in population can be observed. However, according to Rosstat, from 2020 to 2036, the population of Russia will again be reduced. Natural population growth will have a negative value, and the expected migration increase will not compensate for the excess of the death rate of the population over the birth rate (Figure 02 ).

Figure 2: Change in the population of the Russian Federation in 2018–2035 (medium version of the scenario, thousand people)
Change in the population of the Russian Federation in 2018–2035 (medium version of the scenario, thousand people)
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The dynamics of indicators in Figure 02 allows us to conclude that even a migration increase will not fully cover the natural population decline, which ultimately will lead to a decrease in the population of the Russian Federation by 2035. In this regard, it is necessary to create the most attractive conditions for attracting migrants, especially from the CIS countries.

The main results of migration in Russia

It is worth considering the fact that labor migration has a great impact on regional labor markets not only in Russia, but also in Europe. As Adrian Otoiu points out in his article (Adrian, 2014), in most cases labor migration is due to potential economic opportunities in a new place, namely, obtaining a higher income, the likelihood of finding a job, changing marital status, etc. Similarly for Russia, the cause of labor migration of the population is, first of all, the search for a higher potential income. So, considering the results of migration in the Russian Federation for 2005-2017 (Figure 03 ), it can be noted that the main indicators of population migration were growing in the Russian Federation.

Figure 3: Population migration in the Russian Federation in 2005-2017
Population migration in the Russian Federation in 2005-2017
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The dynamics of population migration, noted in Figure 03 , allows us to conclude that within 2005–2017, the increase in the number of arrivals and departures stopped only in the crisis years for Russia, continuing during the post-crisis recovery. The migration balance (migration increase), defined as the difference between the number of arrivals and the number of departures, had positive values throughout the period under consideration, demonstrating moderate volatility. Since 2007, the country reached and then almost every year (except for 2010) exceeded one of the target indicators defined by the Concept of the demographic policy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2025 - to ensure migration of at least 200 thousand people annually by 2016 to replace the natural decline in the population as a result of reducing the birth rate.

Directions of population migration

Considering the direction of migration, it is worth noting that it occurs within the Russian Federation - between urban and rural settlements, between urban settlements and between rural settlements within one district / subject of the Russian Federation / federal district and between them. The combination of these areas of population transfer is the form of internal migration. From the point of view of M.P. Todaro (Todaro & Maruszko, 1987), internal migration is more preferable in comparison with external, since the sources of internal migration are more often young people who are better educated and oriented to success than the general population in the field of emigration. In addition to internal migration, it is also necessary to consider the characteristics of external migration, which represents the movement of population between the Russian Federation and other countries (Figure 04 ).

Figure 4: Dynamics of population arrival in the Russian Federation in the context of migration directions in 2005-2017
Dynamics of population arrival in the Russian Federation in the context of migration directions in 2005-2017
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As the data of Figure 04 show, the migration increase (migration balance) in the Russian Federation as a whole is formed only through internal migration, which ultimately predetermines the indicators of aggregate dynamics and the quality parameters of migration. In turn, a detailed analysis of internal migration (Figure 05 ) shows that it has become increasingly open in nature, as evidenced by a fairly stable decrease in the proportion of population migration within the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and a corresponding increase in the share of interregional movements.

On the basis of the data presented in Figure 5 , it can be assumed that after the economic crisis of 2008–2009, a definite change in the pattern of migration behavior of the Russian population was outlined. This model is characterized by an increase in internal migration; the intensity of internal migration; interregional migration within the country.

A confirmation of the change in the model of migration behavior of the population, including the increase in the intensity of internal migration, is the fact that individuals living in the previous place from birth are increasingly involved in intra-regional resettlements, so their share increased from 16.3% in 2008 to 20.6% in 2016.

Figure 5: Dynamics of the structure of internal migration in the Russian Federation
Dynamics of the structure of internal migration in the Russian Federation
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At the same time, the frequency of repeated migrations within the framework of intraregional movements increases. So, if in 2008 migrants re-participating in intraregional territorial movements lived in the previous place of residence on average for 12.2 years, then in 2016 it already made only 6.4 years (Figure 06 ).

Figure 6: Repeated migrations within the framework of intraregional movements in the Russian Federation in 2008-2016
Repeated migrations within the framework of intraregional movements in the Russian Federation in 2008-2016
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The growing territorial mobility of the population shown in Figure 06 , may be the result of a number of factors. Among them are the following: facilitating the conditions of internal migration (legal, organizational, infrastructural, information, etc.), differentiation of opportunities to meet vital needs in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

The change in the model of migration behavior of the population can be viewed as a whole as a positive phenomenon in a market economy and it is very important from the standpoint of solving a number of current and future social and economic problems in Russia. Among them are the following: the prevention of stagnant unemployment and the achievement of a balance in regional labor markets, the promotion of economic development of promising areas, the optimization of the population structure in the interests of demographic development, etc.

For this reason, taking into account changes in the model of migration behavior of the population of Russia, it is advisable to adjust the goals, objectives and targets (indicators) with regard to internal migration of the population in the strategic planning documents of the Russian Federation, including those in state programs of the Russian Federation. In particular, it is necessary to establish target figures for organizing resettlement/territorial mobility, including unemployed citizens taking into account the quantitative characteristics of internal migration. It is also advisable to fix the effect of internal migration on the change in population in the regions of Russia in the strategic planning documents of the Russian Federation.

A significant role in the migration of the population in Russia is also performed by external (interstate) migration, ensuring, among other things, the migration increase in the country's population. So, there was a fairly steady growth in the number of persons arriving from foreign countries in 2007-2017, except for the period of economic crisis, when the number of arrivals decreased. The increase in arrivals was mainly due to residents of the CIS countries, and to a much lesser extent due to migrants from other countries.

At the same time, there was a departure of the population from Russia abroad in 2007–2017, both to the CIS countries and to other states. However, the dynamics of departures within the framework of external migration was somewhat different. The relative stability of departures in 2007-2011 (fluctuations in the range from 37 to 47 thousand people) was replaced by a spasmodic growth that began in 2012 at around 122.7 thousand people and lasted until 2017, when the departures reached 377.1 thousand people. It can be concluded that the reduction in the migration increase (balance) of external (interstate) migration in Russia during the crisis period resumed in the post-crisis years and it was quite stable up to 2017 based on the data presented.

Problem Statement

Causes of population migration

Analysis and identification of the causes of regional migration (Table 01 ) is important for the development of a reasonable migration policy. There are four main groups among the causes of internal migration in Russia in 2008-2016: reasons of a personal, family nature; study; work, as well as return to the former place of residence.

Table 1 -
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As the data in Table 01 show, the share of internal migrations in Russia has noticeably decreased in 2008–2016 due to personal (family) reasons, as well as in connection with returning to the previous place of residence, which confirms the above conclusion about the change in migration attitudes of Russians. Territorial movements in connection with studies and work were also significant reasons for internal migration. However, the dynamics of their share in 2008-2016 was unstable and did not demonstrate a clear connection with the macroeconomic situation. In conjunction with the causes of internal migration, it is necessary to consider the structure of the causes of external migration (Table 02 ).

Table 2 -
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As the data of Table 02 show, the structure of the dynamics of causes of external migration in 2008–2016 as a whole was quite close to the similar structure of internal migration. At the same time, the share of movements of social and labor nature is noticeably higher in external migration due to work and study, as well as due to exacerbation of interethnic relations and criminogenic conditions, both in arrival and in migration growth. Moreover, the dynamics of the last indicators is noticeable, which is advisable to take into account in the framework of migration policy measures.

Regulation of labor migration in regions with natural loss and migration outflow of the population

In recent years, the regulation of regional labor migration in Russia has been carried out through legal, financial, economic, organizational and other instruments. The most effective instrument for regulating regional labor migration are instruments for regulating migration within the framework of measures determined by the State Program to assist the voluntary resettlement of compatriots living abroad to the Russian Federation (Table 03 ).

Table 3 -
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Thus, the growth in the number of participants in the State Program for the Resettlement of Compatriots, especially in 2014–2016, which is shown in Table 03 , ensured the migration increase in the country’s population and thereby helped to solve the country's demographic problems in the analyzed period the share of the number of participants in the State Program for the Resettlement of Compatriots in the total volume of external (interstate) migration on arrival increased in dynamics noticeably, though unstably. This created prerequisites for real impact not only on the quantitative, but also on the qualitative parameters of external (interstate) migration (demographic, social, etc.) through this program.

It can be concluded that the increase in the effectiveness of state regulation of migration will be facilitated by the following, taking into account the results of the analysis, as well as materials of publications in the media:

  • updating of the provisions characterizing the goals, objectives, priorities of the migration policy of Russia in the strategic planning documents of the Russian Federation and the subjects of the Russian Federation;

  • improvement of the interdepartmental coordination of federal executive bodies responsible for formulating and implementing public policy and legal regulation in the field of migration of the population with the aim to strengthen the validity of a number of provisions of strategic planning documents, use more effective regulatory measures, improve budget financing mechanisms, etc.;

  • differentiation of the system of benefits and compensation to migrants, as well as financial assistance to employers, depending on the categories of workers involved and the regions of moving in;

  • use of approaches used in the framework of public-private partnerships, while compensating for the costs for relocating of workers.

Research Questions

The main results and directions of migration.

Demographic and social characteristics of population migration.

Causes of population migration.

Migration factors.

Regulation of population migration.

Purpose of the Study

The aim of the study is to develop methods and tools for managing human resources in regions with natural loss and migration outflow of the population.

The objectives of the study are:

  • conducting an assessment of demographic situation and analysis of the labor market in regions with a natural decline in the population;

  • analysis of labor migration in regions with migration outflow of the population;

  • identifying the main factors affecting regional labor migration;

  • development of methods, tools, mechanisms for the management of labor resources in regions with natural loss and migration outflow of the population;

  • justification of recommendations to the state and municipal authorities to improve the efficiency of use of labor resources in regions with a natural decline and migration outflow of the population.

Research Methods

The following methods were used to solve the tasks set in the scientific article: economic and statistical, comparative analytical, sociological, expert assessments, correlation and regression analysis, source study, system analysis, economic and mathematical modelling, graphic modelling (Fischer & Pfaffermayr, 2017; Hung-Ju & I-Hsiang, 2013; King & Skeldon, 2010; Sanderson, 2013; Vincenzo & Leandro, 2016).

Findings

In 2005–2017 (with the exception of the crisis years of 2008–2009), a general growth trend was observed for the main indicators of population migration in the Russian Federation: the number of arrivals and departures the balance of migration growth for this period showed positive values.

The parameters of the macroeconomic situation in Russia in 2005–2016, including the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate, had a significant influence on the main migration indicators. In turn, external (interstate) migration contributed to a definite solution of the demographic problems of the Russian Federation due to the influx of able-bodied population, as well as to the relocation of people with vocational education to the country.

The decrease in migration growth (balance) of foreign (interstate) migration in Russia observed after 2011 indicates a decrease in the migration attractiveness of our country for foreign citizens, due, among other things, to the falling purchasing power of the average monthly nominal wages of workers in the Russian economy in dollar equivalent, caused by the weakening of the ruble against the dollar.

Increasing of migration growth is advisable not so much by increasing the influx of population from abroad, but by reducing the volume and intensity of migrants leaving, increasing their survival rate in the new place of residence, which can be considered as one of the promising tasks of the migration policy of the country.

The intensity of internal migration in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation is influenced by such indicators of regional socio-economic development as:

  • the level of economic development of the regions;

  • parameters of the living standard of the population;

  • levels of development and availability of social infrastructure in the regions;

  • crime level.

Optimization of the directions of internal migration of the population is possible by overcoming regional differences in income levels and poverty of the population, leveling of the development of social infrastructure, accessibility of facilities and the social services provided by them considering the above mentioned.

The existing benefits used to support the territorial movements of the unemployed for employment / relocation to another locality do not have the desired effect due to small scale, they do not encourage and will not stimulate the territorial population movements with the aim of reducing unemployment and regulating migration. It is advisable in this regard to use the proven positive experience in encouraging voluntary resettlement accumulated in international practice.

Conclusion

Thus, the main directions of regulation of labor resources in the regions with natural decline and migration outflow of the population should be the following:

  • development of classification approaches to the study of labor migration by factors, types and other aspects and directions;

  • development of a system for assessing the significance of factors affecting labor migration in the region;

  • development of a methodology for determining the need for labor resources in regions with a natural decline and migration outflow of the population, including the need for migrant workers;

  • determination of conditions of attraction, selection procedure, restrictions, length of stay of labor migrants in the host country;

  • development of a point system in the selection of migrant workers based on certain criteria and indicators;

  • development of indicators of economic efficiency of attracting labor migrants to the regional labor market and the legalization of their labor;

  • development of differentiated programs for attracting labor migrants;

  • development of a methodology for assessing the satisfaction of migrant workers with the process of socio-economic adaptation in the regional labor market.

The data obtained allow us to conclude that the solution to the problem of increasing migration growth as a means of compensating for the natural population decline should be based not only and not so much on increasing the number of migrants receiving, but on reducing their departure, on increasing their survival rate in the new place of residence.

References

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02 April 2019

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Troshina, E., Alekhina, L., Zviagintceva, Y., Bardovskii, V., & Plakhova*, L. (2019). Labor Resources Management In Regions With Natural Population Decline And Migration Outflow. In & V. A. Trifonov (Ed.), Contemporary Issues of Economic Development of Russia: Challenges and Opportunities, vol 59. European Proceedings of Social and Behavioural Sciences (pp. 500-510). Future Academy. https://doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2019.04.54