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Banking Sector Stability Evaluation Method: Trends And Problems

Table 1:

Criteria Calculation formula Characteristics
Monetization indicator by ruble stock, I1 I1 = ruble money stock / GDP Reflects money stock sufficiency for distribution service. Depends on the economy reproduction structure and is defined by the production lead time in the industries with the highest growth rate during the period under review.
Monetization by the foreign currency component, IВ1 IВ1 = exchange money stock / GDP Allows considering not only the volume of the ruble money stock but its exchange component, too
Foreign currency predominance indicator, I2 I2 = exchange money stock / ruble money stock A share of the exchange component of the money stock aggregate
Cash element, I3 I3 = Cash / rouble money stock Low value is indicative of successful operation of the banking system as a transmitter of monetary resources among the key business entities of the national economy.
Indicator of money stock outrunning price index, I4 I4 = money stock index / consumer price index Dynamic pattern of prices and money stock is representative of structural changes in the economy
Lending and credit indicator, I5 I5 = loan debt / volume of deposits Reflects the relation between the originated loan volume and amount of the resources attracted by the banking system in general
Share of arrears, I6 I6 = Loan arrears / loan debt As practice shows, balanced financial result of credit organizations remains negative when loan arrears value is 6% and financial result of the banking system operations becomes positive only when this value is reduced to 3%. Thus, the following stability level can be suggested: I6 > 3% - low level of banking system development stability;3% ≥ I6 > 0 – mean stability level;I6 = 0 – high stability level
Indicator of the banking system stability threshold factor Rg > ik > ir > IP* Reflects interrelation between banking sector real economy and population
Correlation between credit rates and deposits, Iк/r Iк/r = ik, %/ir, % Characterizes banking system’s ability to increase interest margin from active money-lending business
Indicator of development disparity between the real and credit sectors, I7 I7 = index of the loss-making enterprises share / index of the loss-making banks share Peculiarity of this index is that, in case of positive values, its figures should tend to 1. If indexes of share of the loss-making enterprises and credit organizations arranged by years are equal to 1, then it is the evidence of two main aspects:1. When the figure is ≤1, there is a reduction of share of loss-making enterprises during the reference year which is already a positive trend in the dynamics and is representative of the stability enhancement; 2. Such a value of the index I7 is indicative of even development of two economic system sectors: business and banking.
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