The paper is devoted to a specific group of young respondents who perceive the “civil marriage” from the point of view of minimizing responsibility, considering the possibility of an easy divorce as the main reason for unregistered relationship. Currently, such an opinion among young people has become, if not dominant, then quite significant (58 out of 120 people). This allowed (based on NBICS-convergence) studying the causal picture for this specific group within the framework of the “correlation relativism”, which allows a meaningful enrichment of the study of the dependencies of variables of any study. The paper considers the dependencies between sociological and psychological interval variables within the selected group of respondents. For data analysis, the author’s method was used, the results of solving the problem within the model of dependencies for triads of independent variables are given. For a specific group of 58 respondents between 163 psychological and sociological parameters, strong linear links with Pearson correlation coefficient (R>0.7) were identified – 15 for sociological and 17 for psychological parameters. At the same time, most of the dependencies for sociological parameters are fairly predictable and trivial. The dependencies between psychological variables were not considered. The simplest nonlinear dependencies with the coupling force coefficient of SV>0.7, if not take into account the dependencies between psychological parameters, 16 were identified, 8 of which are considered in the paper.
One of the characteristics of modern Russian society is the spread of unregistered unions or “civil marriages”. This is especially true of the youth environment with the wide spread of such unions, which leads to the transformation of common family values. Besides, the attitude of the society towards “civil marriages” is becoming increasingly loyal. The social problem is that due to the increase in the number of “civil marriages” being a freer form of relations the society loses control over the family institution, there is a gap between the society and the family, and the connection between them is lost. All this applies not only to purely family relations, but also affects the political preferences of young people, transforming them into a more complex causal picture compared to a general, non-specific pattern.
The political preferences of young people are an urgent problem of modern sociology and psychology, since young people directly influence the formation of the political situation in the country, thus determining its future. In recent years, sociology and psychology have studied the peculiarities of political mentality (Erdineeva, 2014), political attitudes among students of various denominational affiliation (Gorbunova, 2014), political values and motivation of students (Morozova, 2019), level of socio-political activity (Kruzhkova, Vorobyeva, Krivoshchekovova, 2019), political sentiments (Popova, Lagutin, 2019), transformation of political attitudes and value orientations of the youth (Safonova, Obukhova, Tanova, 2019).
While politics is not a priority for today’s youth interests, young learners are interested in political events. Currently, the interest in political events is mainly related to the receipt of information from official sources. Despite the interest in politics, the real participation of young people in political actions is extremely low, and political and civic activity is not a priority interest of the younger generation (Chuev, Timokhovich, Grishaeva, 2017).
We studied the political preferences of young people using two sociological questionnaires (35 main quantitative assessments) and their psychological features according to nine methodologies (163 indicators): 1) personality properties by MMPI baseline scales; 2) socio-psychological personality features within the framework of R.B. Cattell’s 16-factor personality questionnaire; 3) “Personality Types” and “Probabilistic Disorders” of this type according to the methodology of J. Oldham and L. Morris; 4) ideas of a subject about himself within the framework of T. Leary’s methodology “Questionnaire for the diagnosis of interpersonal relations”; 5) personal factors of temperament and character according to the methodology of the 5-factor personal questionnaire of R. McCrae and P. Costa; 6) personal factors of temperament and character according to the Smishek Questionnaire; 7) state of aggression according to the methodology of A. Buss and A. Durkee; 8) levels of emotional burnout according to the method of V.V. Boyko; 9) types of behavior of people in conflict situations within the framework of the C. Thomas technique.
Purpose of the Study
The study aimed to analyze the causal conditionality of the socio-political consciousness of young people and the numerous psychological characteristics of a respondent in a specific group of respondents who believe that the “reason for “civil marriage” is determined, first of all, by the fact that in a civil marriage it is formally easier for partners to separate”. Thus, they believe that as a form of relationship, “civil marriage” minimizes the responsibility of members of such a union to each other, to future children, when the main thing is to make their lives easier and there are fewer problems. But at present, such an opinion among young people has become, if not dominant, then significantly represented, being close to 50% (58 out of 120 people). This made it possible to study this group as a separate “reporting system”. The study of the identity of the causal picture within a specific group of respondents is, in our understanding, a methodology of “correlative relativism” that allows meaningfully enriching the study of dependencies in the framework of any study.
The author’s method of multiple comparison (based on NBICS-convergence) allowed building a method of statistical dependencies (Basimov, 2016). First, quantile partitions (triads, quarters, quinters) of data are formed for each parameter, after which a multiple comparison is made according to a generalized version, when the values of all parameters for all quantile groups are compared with each other. Finally, the coupling force coefficients are constructed, which are normalized so that the analog of the unit correlation (dependence of the parameter on itself) in the new coefficients also takes a value equal to one. Linear dependencies become one of the private cases of statistical communication. When the dependence is far from linear (symmetric or asymmetric maximum or minimum), for strong relations mainly based on the results of calculating the coupling force coefficients, without a subjective factor, a cause variable and a consequence variable are determined.
When analyzing psychological and sociological publications that use the results of the correlation analysis, we often observe the situation when due to very weak correlations (0.15-0.3), “when interpreting the hypothesis of zero equality of the correlation coefficient using “significant” correlation” (Basimov, 2018), many researchers began to receive “numerous scientific results”. Very weak correlations are considered and interpreted, of which almost one thousand are accumulated in almost any study, and from them it is possible to select suitable and interesting in terms of the content for the researcher. Moreover, in studies we also do not exclude the presence of strong linear patterns for which correlation analysis is applicable.
Let us consider the interpretations and graphs of dependencies for triads of independent variables in the above specific group of 58 respondents, in the understanding of which “civil marriage” is the minimization of responsibility in family relations. Between 163 psychological and sociological parameters of strong linear dependencies with Pearson correlation coefficient R>0.7, 15 were identified separately for sociological and 17 separately for psychological parameters. At the same time, most of the dependencies for sociological parameters are fairly predictable and trivial. There are no strong linear dependencies between psychological and sociological variables, simple relations are the inheritance of, first of all, related variables. Thus, 16 simplest nonlinear bonds with the coupling force coefficient SV>0.7 were identified, if we do not take into account the relations between psychological parameters, 8 of which are discussed in detail below. Let us start with four out of 10 dependencies between sociological content estimates.
Dependence of “Satisfaction with the work of the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin” (SOC-33) on “Satisfaction with the results of voting in the presidential elections of the Russian Federation” (SOC-32) presented as the comparative weights (weightiness)of SOC-33 parameter for triads on the SOC-32 scale. The dependence with extremely asymmetric minimum, coupling force coefficient of direct dependence (Y on X) – SV=0.79(Factor of the connection strength). Therespondents who are fully satisfied with the voting results in the presidential elections of the Russian Federation also express satisfaction with the work of the President of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin as much as possible (comparative weight equals +34552). A complete dissatisfaction with his work (-44472) is not observed in those who are not satisfied with the results of the elections, but in those who are neutral in assessing the voting results. But those that were dissatisfied with the voting results quite neutrally evaluate the activities of the president (+961). There is no such dependence in the group of politically active respondents, this group is sharply different in composition from the group of respondents under consideration, for whom the reason for abandoning a legal marriage in favor of a “civil marriage” in the youth environment is determined by the legally untied possibility of divorce in such a union. See diagram on Figure 1. The inverse dependence (X on Y) on the coupling force coefficient is rather weak (SV’=0.16), which is reflected in the value of the correlation coefficient (r=0.33), which the proponents of the “significance” of the correlation will determine as strongly significant at p=0.01, and, therefore, interpret the dependence as increasing linear, when with an increase in satisfaction with the voting results, the respondents should also see an increase in the satisfaction with the work of the president.
2. Dependence of (SOC-25) on (SOC-35). The dependence with minimum, close to symmetrical, coupling force coefficient of direct dependence (Y on X) –. A moderate subjective assessment of his material situation contributes to an extremely low assessment of V.V. Zhirinovsky (-67971). The politician is most highly appreciated by respondents with a low assessment of their financial situation ($not-found(+19366)19366). But high estimates of their material situation also do not cause a negative attitude towards the politician (+5297). Uncertainty in understanding his material situation creates an extremely negative attitude towards V.V. Zhirinovsky and not only to him, since this parameter in the group under consideration has become the main one of sociological parameters, on which many other parameters depend. See diagram on Figure 2. The inverse dependence (X on Y) is extremely weak (), which means that the dependence is clearly one-sided, the correlation coefficient () will be determined by the proponents of the correlation “significance” as significant at p=0.05, and, therefore, interpret the dependence as decreasing linear when the assessment of the LDPR leader falls with increasing subjective perception of their material situation.
3. Dependence of (SOC-08) on (SOC-35). The dependence with minimum close to symmetric, coupling force coefficient of direct dependence (Y on X) –. A moderate subjective assessment of his material situation contributes to an extremely low assessment of the activities of the Prime Minister D.A. Medvedev (-76165). When there is certainty of either low or high level of subjective perception of one’s material well-being, the politician is rated at a fairly high positive level ($not-found(+19946 or +13290)19946 or +13290). See diagram on Figure 3. The inverse dependence (X on Y) on the coupling force coefficient is rather weak (), which is reflected in the value of the correlation coefficient (), which the proponents of the “significance” correlation will determine as strongly significant at p=0.01, and, therefore, interpret the dependence as decreasing linear when, with an increase in the subjective perception of their material position, the respondents decrease the assessment of D.A. Medvedev.
4. Dependence of (SOC-19) on “ (SOC-35). The dependence with a strongly asymmetric minimum, coupling force coefficient of direct dependence (Y on X) –. A moderate subjective assessment of material situation contributes to an extremely low assessment of the Just Russia Party (-67664). The respondents who perceive their financial situation at a low level are extremely positive about the Just Russia Party (+41581). But those who feel financially prosperous are neutral (+2299). See diagram on Figure 4. The inverse dependence (X on Y) on the coupling force coefficient is rather weak (), which is reflected in the value of the correlation coefficient (), which the proponents of the “significance” correlation will determine as strongly significant at p=0.01, and, therefore, interpret the dependence as decreasing linear, when with an increase in the subjective perception of their material situation the respondents decrease the attitude to the Just Russia Party.
The following dependencies reveal the links between psychological and sociological parameters. There are very few such dependencies in the group under consideration (only 6), which is sharply different from the group of politically active young respondents. Let us consider 4 of them.
2. Dependence of (SOC-27) onparameter (PSY-5). The dependence with not completely symmetrical minimum, the coupling force coefficient of direct dependence (dependence Y on X) –. The “Aggressiveness – Friendliness” scale was determined as a strong reason affecting the attitudes of respondents to B.Yu. Titov. At the same time, strongly pronounced aggressiveness or friendliness positively affect the attitude towards the politician. Aggressive respondents, who can be described as demanding and frank, harsh in evaluating others who tend to blame others, are more sympathetic to him (+25220), friendly respondents who are kind to everyone, are oriented towards social approval, have developed mechanisms of displacement and suppression, are somewhat less sympathetic to the politician (+5485). But when respondents cannot be attributed to either aggressive or friendly, there is a sharp rejection of B.Yu. Titov (-57565). See diagram on Figure 6. The inverse dependence (X on Y) on the coupling force coefficient is almost zero (), the correlation is also extremely weak (). There is simply no dependence between the two studied variables for the supporters of the correlation analysis.
3. Dependence of (SOC-24) on (PSY-6). The dependence with almost symmetric maximum, the coupling force coefficient of direct dependence (Y on X) –. The altruistic respondents of the group under consideration, selected by judgment about marriage relations that sacrifice their interests, are obsessive in their help, inadequately accepting someone else’s responsibility (although this may only be an “external mask”), have quite negative attitude to D.A. Medvedev (-4887). Suspicious respondents who are offensive, vicious, doubt everything are even more negative to the politician (-8169). But if the respondent cannot be attributed to a clearly suspicious or altruistic type, there is an extremely high indicator of positive attitude to D.A. Medvedev (+49452). See diagram on Figure 7. The inverse dependence (X on Y) on the coupling force coefficient is practically zero (), the correlation is also almost zero (). The supporters of the correlation analysis see no dependence between the two variables in question.
4. Dependence of (16F-08) on (SOC-09). The dependence with not completely symmetrical maximum, the coupling force coefficient of direct dependence (Y on X) –. High appreciation of the activities of President V.V. Putin, as an indicator, identifies respondents that are mainly “cruel” according to the terminology of R. Cattell (-18806), who are characterized by self-confidence and rationality, practicality, ungratefulness to others. Uncertainty in assessing the activities of the president, when the hand does not rise, on the one hand, to put low ranking (perhaps this is a consequence of some sense of fear), and on the other hand, there is no desire to highly evaluate the activities of the politician, distinguishes extremely sensitive respondents (+52819), who are characterized by softness, desire for patronage, artistic nature, ability to sympathy and empathy. Low assessment of the leader’s activity psychologically distinguishes an uncertain personality within the framework of the “Cruelty – Sensitivity” scale (+140). See diagram on Figure 8. The inverse dependence (X on Y) on the coupling force coefficient is practically zero (), which clearly emphasizes the one-sidedness of the dependence under consideration. The value of the correlation coefficient (), which proponents of the “significance” correlation will determine as significant at p=0.05, and, therefore, interpret the dependence as decreasing linear when, with the fall of “cruelty” and the growth of “sensitivity” in the terminology of R. Cattell, the estimate put by respondents to the president decreases.
This once again confirms the need to study, first of all, the simplest nonlinear dependenciesin sociology and psychology, including in the study of the political preferences of young people, although the nonlinear nature of psychological and sociological data is not relevant for most researchers. The conversation about traditional mistakes arising due to the “new” rules of statistics was raised by the author and his like-minded people at the main sociological ESAs (Kornienko, 2017), ISAs and psychological ECPs, IPCs (Basimova, 2016; Ilinyh, 2012; Padurina, 2012) congresses, as well as in numerous articles. It is also impossible to neglect the fact that the peculiarity of each nominal group determines both its specific causal relations and their total number. An attempt to average all the data by mixing proportionally into one sample of different respondents on social and material status, education, age, etc., will make it possible to get an answer only to certain simple practical questions within a region or a country. But this is not the way for a deep analytical study of the causal structures of psychological and sociological content.
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31 March 2022
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Basimov, M., & Skinderev, R. (2022). Young People’s Attitude Towards Civil Marriage And Politic Based On Nbics-Convergence. In I. Savchenko (Ed.), Freedom and Responsibility in Pivotal Times, vol 125. European Proceedings of Social and Behavioural Sciences (pp. 156-164). European Publisher. https://doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2022.03.20