| Impact classification criteria |
Consequence groups |
Effects b |
| 1. Period of exposure |
1. Long-term |
1. The long-term impact on progress in agribusiness research remains unclear.2. Development of risk management strategies in the field of the agro-industrial complex, including ensuring greater self-sufficiency in food production.3. Automation in order to reduce the risks of using labor force, which may be unavailable due to illness or restriction of labor migration. |
| 2. Short-term |
1.Diversion of researchers involved in ongoing agribusiness projects to COVID-19 research projects.2. Threats to food security around the world due to the disruption of supply chains. |
| 2. Field of activity |
1. Agriculture |
1. Increasing trend towards more protected farming allows the production of products close to the point of consumption.2. Accelerated introduction of improved crop varieties using new genetic technologies. |
| 2. Branches and services providing agriculture with means of production and material resources |
1. Malfunctions of tractor and agricultural machinery.2. Malfunctions in the production of mineral fertilizers, chemicals, seeds, feed, etc. |
| 3. Industries that are engaged in the processing of agricultural raw materials |
1. Processing of agricultural raw materials is interrupted or out of order due to restrictions on labor movement.2. The food and light industries are experiencing the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| 4. Infrastructure block |
1. Truck drivers, ship dockers, etc. may become sick, quarantined, or forced to stay at home.2. Increase in the cost of transportation and an increase in the cost of storage.3. Supply disruptions due to limited trade flow in food systems are highly dependent on imports (for example, for equipment that chills meat, for inputs such as feed and fertilizers, or for the food itself). |
| 3. Market elements |
1. Demand side |
1. Panic purchases and stockpiling of the most consumed foods.2. Reduced demand for indoor plants and fresh flowers.3. Growth in demand for home delivery services, take-out shopping, etc.4. Decrease in demand for services of restaurants, cafes, etc. |
| 2. On the supply side |
1. Farmers reduce or stop functioning of their farms due to illness of workers, which leads to a decrease in production and an increase in prices for agricultural products.2. Decrease in the production of perishable goods due to difficulties in the distribution system |
| 4. Sectors of the economy involved in the agro-industrial complex с |
1. Chemical industry, including biochemistry |
1. Stopping or reducing the production of some fertilizers (carbomide, phosphate fertilizers – India, fertilizer mixtures – Nigeria, phosphate fertilizers – Tunisia, etc.).2. Logistics problems in the chemical industry due to restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| 2. Forestry industry |
1. Stopping or reducing the volume of production of furniture, lumber, some fertilizers (furniture – Italy, lumber – Canada, USA, woodworking industry – China, etc.)2. Logistics problems in the forestry industry due to restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. |
| 3. Transport |
1. International transportation has been seriously disrupted by COVID-19 in such modes of transport as water, rail, road, air, the work of which is also involved in the agro-industrial complex.2. Transportation is one of the sectors of the global economy most affected by the pandemic. |
| 4. Information technology (IT) |
1. The intensity of the use of information technologies at all stages of production in the field of the agro-industrial complex has increased.2. Stimulating the development of IT as a way to minimize the negative consequences of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the agro-industrial complex. |
| 5. Light industry |
1. Moving sales of textile, leather, and other types of light industry to the online format.2. Deficiency of factors of production, primarily raw materials and workers, influenced the decline in production. |
| 5. Factors of production |
1. Labor |
1. The closure of national borders has limited the availability of migrant workers in the agro-industrial complex.2. Some food processing plants have been closed due to the infection of workers with the virus. |
| 2. Land |
1. Potential reduction of cultivated areas in the future as a reaction to a decrease in demand for some agricultural crops.2. Reduced access to such types of resources like seeds, fertilizers, etc., due to the disruption of supply chains. |
| 3. Capital |
1. Central banks reacted to the pandemic by changing the key (discount) rate, which affected, among other things, the agro-industrial complex.2. Commercial banks have offered preferential lending programs to entrepreneurs in the agro-industrial sector. |
| 4. Entrepreneurship (entrepreneurial ability) |
1. The pandemic has forced agribusiness entrepreneurs worldwide to look for new ways of interacting with counterparties (suppliers and intermediaries).2. The relevance and activity of developments in the field of risk management in the agro-industry have increased. |
| 5. Information |
1. The high speed of updating information on the development of the pandemic is the basis for making relevant management decisions by farmers2. Qualified personnel in the field of management of the agro-industrial complex, who are the carriers of this resource, switched to a remote work format |
| 6. Category of influence |
1. Minor influence |
1. Consumption of essential goods, including most food, has not undergone significant negative changes.2. The agricultural sector and the sectors involved will not respond quickly due to the seasonality of production. |
| 2. Medium influence |
1. Soon, the agro-industrial complex is waiting for diversification, considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.2. The production of luxury goods (fur, leather goods) will be reduced. |
| 3. Significant influence |
1. Decrease in the income of the population aggravates the problem of food security.2. The risk of reduced productivity and food security in the agro-industrial sector due to sickness in workers, disruptions in the supply chain. |
| 7. Production stages |
1. Production |
1. Disruptions of sowing and harvesting campaigns due to disruptions in the supply of spare parts and illness of workers.2. The need to change the production program by changing production technologies, including replacing seeds, fertilizers, etc. |
| 2. Distribution |
1. The pandemic has highlighted the critical importance of the continuous production and distribution of food and some of the approaches developed to ensure the long-term preservation of food supplies.2. Perishable products may not reach the market or consumers due to transportation restrictions. |
| 3. Exchange |
1. Rising prices for fuel, spare parts for agricultural machinery.2. Rising prices for food products, mainly imported ones. |
| 4. Consumption |
1. There is a shift in demand in the food sector from visiting grocery stores and catering outlets towards home delivery of groceries and ready meals.2. The share of the low-price segment in sales of foodstuffs and FMCG increased. |
| 8. Enterprise sized |
1. Large enterprises |
1. Large businesses, including those in the agro-industrial complex, are more resistant to stress concerning force majeure, which is primarily due to their high financial capabilities.2. Support for large businesses in the agro-industrial complex from the state is selective. |
| 2. Medium-sized enterprises |
1. The financial capabilities of small and medium-sized enterprises, including those in the agro-industrial complex, to respond to external risks are lower than those of large businesses.2. Under their characteristics, small and medium-sized enterprises are especially vulnerable to the multifaceted negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic relations in the agricultural sector.3. Small and medium-sized enterprises, including those in the agro-industrial complex, have become a priority area of state support in the new economic conditions. |
| 3. Small enterprises |
| 9. The nature of the influence |
1. Positive influences |
1. Acceleration of digitalization of all types of activity, including the sphere of the agro-industrial complex, which will increase labor productivity e.2. Growing demand for essential goods, including food. |
| 2. Negative influences |
1. The main problem of the functioning of the agro-industrial complex is the rupture of international supply chains, including raw materials and finished products in the sphere of the agro-industrial complex.2. Increased threat to food security in the world. |
| a Compiled by the authorsb For some items selectively, as an examplec According to different sources and approaches to the classification, the branches of the economy related to the agro-industrial complex include from 5 to 80 branchesd Criteria for identifying enterprises in groups differ by country, but they are usually based on indicators such as turnover, capitalization, and the number of employees.e Confirmed by author's developments (Aleshina, Baranova & Gurunovich, 2021; Golova & Baranova, 2021) |
