The paper is devoted to the issues of monetary regulation of the Russian economy in the conditions of the aggravation of internal factors, causes and sources of destabilization of the reproductive process, as well as increased external shocks to the economy and social sphere of the Russian Federation. The basic foundations of inflation targeting in modern Russia were highlighted and considered, namely the setting of the inflation goal, the adoption of a decision on the basis of the macroeconomic forecast, the use of a key rate as a monetary policy tool, and the expansion of information openness of communication in the activities of the Bank of Russia. Particular attention is paid to the issues in the area of decision-making by the Bank of Russia, including at a key rate based on its medium-term forecast of the economic development of the Russian Federation. It is shown that the increase in the number of macroeconomic forecast scenarios does not eliminate the problem of the quality of the macroeconomic forecast – verification of forecasts themselves, and above all the base scenario. The paper considers the impact of the real neutral interest rate on the level of the key rate. Recommendations are made regarding the transformation vector of the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy in terms of the macroeconomic forecast toolkit and the application of the global accounting practice for the real neutral interest rate when the Bank of Russia forms a decision on the level of the key rate.
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29 November 2021
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Cultural development, technological development, socio-political transformations, globalization
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Kharonovich, T. A., & Saidov, Z. A. (2021). Macroeconomic Forecast And Key Rate In Monetary Regulation Of The Russian Economy. In D. K. Bataev, S. A. Gapurov, A. D. Osmaev, V. K. Akaev, L. M. Idigova, M. R. Ovhadov, A. R. Salgiriev, & M. M. Betilmerzaeva (Eds.), Social and Cultural Transformations in The Context of Modern Globalism, vol 117. European Proceedings of Social and Behavioural Sciences (pp. 1560-1567). European Publisher. https://doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2021.11.206