Typification Of The Economic Development Of The Leaders Of The World Economy


The efficiency and sustainability of economic development have been measured by indicators of the average annual growth rates of real GDP and the standard deviation of these rates over the economic cycle. The resulting distribution area includes four sectors: development, mafia (institutional autism), theft (kleptocracy) and degradation. In the development sector, aggressive and conservative, egalitarian and elite development are highlighted. The pairs of leaders and first pretenders were investigated: Great Britain and Germany, USA and Russia, China and India. The general pattern of their interaction is revealed. A pretender for leadership must have available development resources and innovate. In the case of increased risks, it is necessary to develop institutionally, reducing the risk of development, as the USA, USSR and China did. With reduced risks, to accelerate development, the pretender needs to break down the old institutions that dialable innovation, as did Germany and India. This is what modern Russia needs. The leader reaches the area of egalitarian development when resources are used most optimally, but loses the ability to maneuver resources. The leader and the first pretender exhaust each other, successively move into the areas of conservative elite development, mafia, degradation, and the second pretender, who escaped the struggle, takes the place of the leader. To enter the struggle for leadership between China and India as the second pretender, Russia has free resources, but their implementation requires institutional reforms that are authentic to the culture to create a networked society: domination of consumer property, direct democracy.

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