Educational Institution Risk Management Model

Theoretical and methodological foundations of risk management

When making management decisions, educational institutions often encounter circumstances that suggest several possible alternatives. Very often, the level of profitability and the probability of losses are interdependent, that is, the most profitable and interesting solutions contain a high level of risk. Therefore, it is important for the educational institution to form a policy in the field of risk management. It should be aimed at pinpointing the impact on each type of risk, assessing the feasibility of the risk, the probability and the number of losses (Kostishko et al., 2020).

The economic significance of the definition of “risk” is analyzed from various points of view. One of the authoritative researchers of the problem of risk management, Kaplan and Mikes (2012) believes: “The first step in developing an effective risk management system is to identify qualitative differences between the types of risk, each of which requires a specific approach” (p. 60).

The existing approaches to the interpretation of the definition of “risk” can be classified into three blocks.

1) risk is a property that is characteristic of any type of expedient activity. At the same time, risks show the probability of events occurring in time that lead to a disbalance of socio-economic systems.

2) risk is the result of the accumulation of regressive potential. The formation of this theory is associated with the destructive nature of risks.

3) risk is uncertainty, without which it is impossible to carry out business activities. The initial goals and objectives may not coincide with the outcome of the events.

The scientific and educational literature reflects several key aspects of risk consideration: economic, destructive, creative, activity and situational aspects. Therefore, the interpretation of the concept of “risk” can be presented in the form of several categories:

• risk is an economic category;
• risk is a danger, the possibility of a negative development of events and a deviation from the intended goals and the drawn-up action plan;
• the risk is identified with the possibility of a successful outcome of the plan, with the receipt of economic benefits from the current circumstances;
• risk is considered as a set of actions that are focused on the implementation of the goal, taking into account the factor of instability of the external and internal environment;
• Risk "acts as a situational characteristic of activity in conditions of uncertainty arising from objective circumstances" and individual-group preferences.

In accordance with the State Standard of the Russian Federation GOST R 51897-2002 “Risk management. Terms and definitions” risk is a combination of the probability of an event and its consequences-the results of events. The consequences are logically arranged from positive to negative.

There are no ready-made recommendations in the risk management process. However, it is possible to achieve success in a given situation, knowing the methods, techniques and ways to solve problems in risk management (Gelai et al., 2016).

The most important element in risk management is their assessment. In this regard, there is a need to create an effective methodology for assessing and analyzing risks. Modern science has developed many different research methods used in determining the level of risk. All methods can be divided into two main groups: quantitative and qualitative. Qualitative analysis is used to determine the factors, areas and types of risks, and quantitative analysis is used to assess individual risks and the risks of participating in the project as a whole (Vorontsovskiy, 2019).

The overall risk assessment strategy can be presented in the form of a risk analysis algorithm, which includes the steps shown in Figure 1.

A qualitative analysis determines the risk factors, the sequence of activities that pose a risk, and is responsible for identifying all possible risks. Identifying the amount of damage from various risk subspecies is a quantitative analysis that identifies the causes, sources of risk and the magnitude of the likely consequences.

Identification of risks of an educational institution

Within the framework of this study, the risk of an educational institution will be interpreted as a threat, a possible unsatisfactory outcome of an event, a deviation from the set goal due to the adoption of a certain managerial decision or force majeure circumstances.

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The authors, who study the problems of risk management in the educational environment, distinguish the following ᡃ internal and external sources of risks: decrease in the quality of the educational process; changes in the legislation of the Russian Federation in the field of education; reduction of the budgetary component of financing; competition in the educational services market; low level of development of the material and technical base; insufficient level of qualifications of the teaching staff; decrease in the effectiveness of communication between teachers and students; changes in supply and demand for certain areas of training in the труда of the labor market; ineffective management decisions; violation of ᡃ economic, fire safety (Lavrischeva, 2017).

Let us present a typology of key risks depending on the types of ᡃ activities of an educational institution:

• Risks in educational activities: non-compliance with the requirements of state educational standards, a decrease in the quality of applicants’ admission and in the quality of education.
• Risks in research activities: low publication activity of teachers, low volumes of research.
• Risks in financial activities: decreased financial stability, low values of strategic indicators.
• Risks in HR-management: staff shortage, decrease in human resources potential.
• Risks in managing material and technical base: reduced use efficiency, a high depreciation percentage, lack of funds for updating the material and technical base of the institution.
• Risks in security management: non-compliance with the requirements of civil defense and emergency situations, fire safety, failure to ensure information security.
• Risks in public relations management: risks of ineffective advertising, risks of non-fulfillment of the career guidance plan, risks of not concluding agreements and contracts with key and new partners.

On the basis of the typology of risks of educational institutions presented in the work, the internal and external risks that affect the quality of the training of graduates are highlighted.

The educational services market is characterized by specific types of risks. At the same time, the parameter “quality of education” is of particular importance. Quality is the most important component, and therefore, first of all, it is necessary to determine the magnitude of the risks associated with this component of education. In modern economic conditions, the heads of an educational institution independently decide on the use of material, technical, labor, financial and other resources, bearing responsibility for increasing the efficiency of their use (Ilyina et al., 2017).

The market demand for educational services is constantly changing in accordance with modern trends in the labor market; therefore, staffing a university with a contingent is often in conditions of uncertainty and is subject to significant risk.

The direction of risk management in an educational institution is very relevant, since the competence of the ability to manage risk is among the least developed among Russian leaders. The main changes to the standard 9001: 2015 compared to the previous version are in a new direction - risk-based thinking (On the application of a risk-based approach when organizing individual types of state control (supervision) and amendments to some acts of the Government of the Russian Federation, 2017).

In order to choose a specific method or a set of methods for dealing with risks, it is necessary to take into account various factors, such as the availability of qualified personnel, the nature and degree of data uncertainty, the admissibility of using the method in specific conditions.

Risk assessment of an educational institution

The key risk in activities of educational institutions is the quality of educational services. It is important to understand that the process of determining the quality of educational services is very complex and multifaceted, it concerns both internal and external goals. Requirements for the quality of education are growing every year. People want to receive quality education in the best conditions at a reasonable price. Economic conditions also influence changes. This makes it possible not only to provide educational services, but also to earn money in this area, maintaining their competitiveness. Therefore, an educational institution needs to constantly develop, be the most adaptable and flexible for its target audience. An analysis of the risks of an educational institution was carried out in order to identify them and reduce the consequences. Figure 2 presents the conclusions of this analysis. Such an analysis makes it possible to identify key problem areas in the educational process, to determine the responsible structural units for the purpose of further detailed consideration and preparation of specific methods to minimize risks.

Development of a risk management model for an educational institution

When developing risk management measures, it is important to take into account that there are specific types for the education sector. Consequently, the methods of risk management in educational institutions should be adjusted and adjusted to the tasks that are set for them. The purpose of the institution in the field of risk management is to ensure that strategic goals are achieved by early identification of risks and ensuring maximum effectiveness of anti-risk measures (Pervushina, 2016a). Ensuring the guaranteed level of training of graduates is achieved by the effective and continuous implementation of the functions of educational activities while reducing the likelihood of a negative impact of risks on the results of education. The risk-based education quality management system, thus, is aimed at monitoring the processes of education and upbringing (Bulygin, 2018). In order to form horizontal connections in the institution, a process approach was developed. It enables employees and departments who are involved in one process to independently coordinate work within it and solve emerging problems without the participation of higher management. The main advantage of the approach is efficiency in resolving issues and impact on the result. For an institution has never faced risk identification before, it is important to focus on risk management when designing processes. Risk management is characterized by a set of methods, techniques and measures aimed at creating a flexible system for the optimal use of available opportunities in order to predict the onset of risks (Pervushina, 2016b). Management and implementers may show a lack of understanding of the process approach in principle. The study proposes an easy-to-understand plan for employees to implement risk-based thinking in an educational institution.

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In order to eliminate losses, it is necessary to change the perception of a risk-based approach. In the GOST R ISO 9001-2015 standard, risks play a more significant role. After researching and analyzing an educational institution, a risk management model was developed (Figure 3).

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Let's consider the advantages of the proposed mechanism. The educational institution will be able to find the sources of existing and possible risks of the educational institution and analyze their factors; get the probability of the occurrence of any risk; assess the potential damage if the situation develops in a negative way. The model allows monitoring risks at the time of the emergence of a negative trend, as well as to develop and apply measures that can minimize the risk.

Such a model involves employees of all levels of the organizational structure in the risk management process. As a result, the implementation of action plans and control procedures, which are developed as part of the functioning of the system, optimizes business processes and headcount. This leads to savings in labor and material resources.