Algorithm For Planning Efficient And Sustainable Crop Production


The paper deals with the problem of optimal planning of the annual program of crop production at an agricultural enterprise. The dependences of crop yields on mineral nutrition elements are determined in the form of nonlinear dependences based on historical data series containing data on crop yields, reserves of mineral nutrition elements in the soil, doses of applied mineral and organic fertilizers. These dependencies are used to develop a fertilizer application plan and justify economically feasible levels of yields in the planning period. The placement of crops according to the best predecessors is formalized on the basis of expertly assigned information on the influence of predecessors in the crop rotation. To obtain cost-effective and sustainable solutions, an algorithm has been developed and tested that implements a series of statistical tests. Randomly selected characteristics of the external environment (parameters in analytical expressions of yields, sales prices, production costs) were compared with the extreme values of the marginal income corresponding to these conditions. Based on the results of statistical tests, the user was provided with information sufficient for a reasonable choice of an option that combines a high economic and financial result with a low risk of not receiving it.

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