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Erroneous Predictions Risk In Corporate Budgeting Systems Of Russian Companies

Table 7:

Adherenceto a certain analysis method Interpretation of management information based on the results of factor analysis of the "revenue" indicator (professional judgment)
1. Conclusion based on the results of factor analysis of revenues for the 'freight' segment according to the traditional method of Russian authors (taking into account the index of changes in freight tariffs, without inflation adjusters) (Voitolovsky et al., 2014) The revenues of JSC "Russian Railways" for the 'freight' segment in the reporting year increased by RUB 87.2 billion, or 6.4%, compared to the reference year. At the same time, the increase in the physical volume of transported cargo contributed to the increase in the segment revenues by RUB 17.9 billion, or 1.3%, while the increase in the average cost of 1 ton of transported cargo contributed to the increase in revenues by RUB 69.3 billion, or 5.1%.
2. Conclusion based on the results of the factor analysis of the revenues for the 'freight' segment according to the updated methodology (taking into account the index of changes in tariffs for cargo transportation and inflation adjusters) (Dedyukhina, 1998; Dedyukhina, 2016; Richard, 1993) The revenues of JSC "Russian Railways" for the 'freight' segment in the reporting year increased by RUB 15.6 billion, or 1.1%, compared to the reference year. At the same time, the decrease in the physical volume of transported goods contributed to the decrease in the segment revenues by RUB 52.2 billion, or 3.7%, and the increase in the average cost of 1 ton of transported cargo contributed to the increase in revenues by RUB 67.8 billion, or 4.8%.
3. Conclusion based on the results of factor analysis of the revenues for the 'long-distance passenger transportation' segment according to the traditional method of Russian authors (taking into account the index of changes in passenger transportation fares, without inflation adjusters) (Voitolovsky et al., 2014) The revenues of JSC "Russian Railways" for the 'passenger transportation' segment in the reporting year increased by RUB 2.6 billion, or 15.1%, compared to the reference year. At the same time, the growth in the number of passengers contributed to the increase in the segment revenues by RUB 2.3 billion, or 13.4%, and the increase in the average cost of transportation per passenger contributed to the increase in revenue of RUB 0.3 billion, or 1.7%.
4. Conclusion based on the results of the factor analysis of the revenues for the 'long-distance passenger transportation' segment according to the updated methodology (taking into account the index of changes in passenger transportation fares and inflation adjusters) (Dedyukhina, 1998; Dedyukhina, 2016; Richard, 1993) The revenues of JSC "Russian Railways" for the 'passenger transportation' segment in the reporting year increased by RUB 1.7 billion, or 9.65%, compared to the reference year. At the same time, the decrease in the number of passengers transported contributed to the decrease in the segment revenues by RUB 1.4 billion, or 7.9%, while the increase in the average cost of transportation per passenger contributed to the increase in revenues by RUB 1.7 billion, or 9.6%.
Source: compiled by the authors based on the data from tables 5 , 6 .
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