The paper reflects study results on the state and trends of human potential development in the South of Russia, factors of integration and conflict in the context of new geopolitical challenges. Analytical conclusions are made according to the expert survey data, conducted in June-September 2018 in Krasnodar Krai. Based on the obtained empirical data, the assessment of integration level and conflict of the regional community was provided. The statistical analysis enabled to map "stable" and "problem" zones of the region. The study focuses on the importance of integration trends and conflict as interdependent processes in various areas, including geographically located on the periphery and in the border area. We consider integration processes in the Russian Black Sea region as a factor to resolve geopolitical contradictions and formation of the resource base for the economic modernization of the region. The paper also analyzes main threats and risks of regional security in the South of Russia. The importance of geopolitical, economic and ethnocultural components of relations development between the Black Sea states and other interested factors of political influence is noted. The paper deals with the analysis of modern foreign policy and domestic political integration processes in the South of Russia, and their role in human potential development of the region. The study uses original methods to measure the level of human potential and modeling trends in the development of human capital. According to study results, some recommendations were formulated to optimize the process of integration and development of regional communities.
Keywords: Human potentialconflict factorsintegrationRussia
The problem of human potential development stands along with strategic security issues of the Russian Federation and its regions. The quality of human potential development is directly related to the possibilities to implement innovative strategies of our country and its regions (Maltseva, 2017). An extremely important problem of regional development, especially in the face of the challenges of our time, is the effective use of all human resources. In this regard, it is possible to outline the actual field of scientific research - the study of the possibilities of human resources of polyethnic society. The main scientific and managerial issue is the strategy to use the potential of ethnic migrants, which, as some studies show (Leonova, 2013), is not fully used. It is not sent to the territory, therefore, it creates serious risks for regional development. Growing risks associated with economic and social problems can generate social tensions, affect the basic qualitative parameters of human potential development, the dynamics of social and demographic development, the threat of defrosting “frozen” conflicts and the emergence of new ones, transforming conflict of low intensity into a high degree of tension. Since, in addition to innovative institutional effects, one of the most important resources that ensures the progressive development of the territorial community is human resources. It is necessary to identify the factors that affect the quality of human capital and sociodemographic characteristics of different regions. In particular, the situation in the south of Russia, a polyethnic region of particular geopolitical importance for our country, is of particular relevance. Any riskogenic processes that occur in this region will inevitably turn into the sphere of national security.
In modern science, the problem of human potential development is being actively studied in the context of values of justice and the importance of a consolidating social effect (Zakharov & Davtyan, 2017). There are various approaches to the interpretation of this concept, the meaning of which comes down to the quality of the abilities and development needs, civil, social and creative activity, professional competence, level of education, social well-being and health. There are elementary components of human potential development: longevity and health, education and high professional qualifications, awareness, access to the resources necessary to maintain a decent standard of living, the ability to be socially active.
The level of integration and conflict of human potential development is influenced by political and cultural factors, the study of its nature, which is associated with the identification of value bases of social interactions in a multi-ethnic environment. At the same time, in the methodological aspect, the problem is considered based on universalistic models of conflicts of civilizations or conflicts of cultures that are simultaneously accompanied by integration processes within groups that are in conflict with each other. The problem study of social conflict is associated with the identification of "intermediate variables", due to the ways of legitimizing power and the hierarchy of statuses in a complexly differentiated society with a multitude of ideological, religious, ethnic, demographic, professional and other interest groups.
In modern political and sociological researches, there is the problem of the lack of clear methodological grounds to study human potential development. Therefore, a multifactor analysis aimed at filling this gap is of scientific value. The empirical interpretation of the designated concept has a more or less broad development in economics as an approach to measure the tested and used in practice Human Development Index (HDI). In political sociology, this field is poorly developed.
The study described in the article suggests the concretization of information on the state and trends of human potential development in a strategically significant region. It involves the consideration of human potential development in a broad sense, not limited to generally accepted social and economic, innovation, and demographic components, by incorporating ideological and value parameters into the model.
The main research question is the concretization of information on the state and trends of human potential development in a strategically significant region, a methodology to measure and assess the level of human potential. In addition, the study of conflict and integration factors implies the consideration of human potential development in a broad sense, not limited to the generally accepted social and economic, innovation and demographic components, through the inclusion of ideological and value parameters in the model. The empirical interpretation of this concept has a more or less broad development in economics in the form of approaches to measurement of the tested and used in practice Human Development Index (HDI). In political sociology, this field is poorly developed. According to Bychenko (2011), general theoretical concepts of human potential in a modern political and sociological context have a number of shortcomings: 1) within these developments, only general theoretical conclusions on this phenomenon are indicated, there are no specific developments related to development factors and the content of its subsystem components; 2) parameters of sociological assessment of human development are not specified, the main indicators that can be used in the process of this assessment are not clear.
Purpose of the Study
The purpose of the paper is to determine the state and trends of human potential development in a strategically significant macro-region.
The paper uses the data from an empirical study conducted in Krasnodar Krai from May to September 2018 in the project framework “Conflict and integration factors of human potential development in the South of Russia in the context of new geopolitical challenges” (with the support of the Russian Federal Property Fund, Project No. 17-03- 00802 OGN). The expert survey was used as a method to collect empirical data (n = 27). The employees were the experts of institutions of science and education, who specialize in political science, conflict studies and sociology; the employees of the state and municipal administration (subjects of the federation government and municipalities), heads of enterprises, media workers).
System models of conflict and integration in the regional dimension are based on a specific classification of factors, i.e. the factor selection that influence on the emerging trends from the entire set of events and phenomena. In the scientific area for a factor analysis of human capital development in the polyethnic society, the main place is given to the development of an indicator system and levels of integration and conflict. The analysis of the complex structure for ideological identity, consisting of cognitive, emotional, and behavioral components, shows which factors influence the level of social integration or the conflict nature of the regional community under the study, which is an integral part of a sovereign state. Indicators can be understood as certain threshold values of conflict indicators, when going beyond them means destabilization.
Taking into account the mental, ideological and social and psychological basis of human capital in multiethnic society, in constructing a system of indicators in this study, a new approach is used that contains not only the actual results of social integration of human resources in demographic, social, industrial and ethnic cultural development, but also the potential effect expressed in needs and attitudes. In global dimensions of human potential development, income is also used. When calculating the integration level, the idea is inherent that the financial situation of citizens depends largely on the social and economic conditions of the region, including the quality of the authorities. The material level can be viewed rather as a factor rather than an indicator of human capital integration.
The empirical study results demonstrate the influence of main parameters of the internal social and political environment of the region on the level of human potential integration and the degree of conflictness of the study object. As indicators of the integration of human capital into the development of a polyethnic region, this study identified a demographic component, involvement in the production process, intellectual development, development of inter-ethnic relations, and innovative development. In the process of analyzing the empirical material, an approbation of the original methods of measuring these indicators, as well as the ideological and socio-psychological component of the mental environment of the region, was carried out.
According to the data of the expert survey, the level of human development in the macro-region is 70% of the level of Western countries. According to experts' averaged estimates, there will be an increase in human development during five years. The main factors influencing human potential development are the level and quality of life of the population in the region, the degree of social inequality and the country as a whole, the level of corruption, the level of innovation and technical development of the region and the introduction of innovative economic activities. Many experts pointed out the need to develop a network of educational personnel retraining tools in the regions. Support for young families is important for municipalities. The intensity of labor migration has a great influence in Krasnodar Krai. The educational policy, economic development of the country, currency fluctuations, and the degree of state control have the greatest influence on the development of human potential development at the federal level. The experts also noted the importance of globalization /isolationism for the development of human potential in the regions and the cooperation of countries in the fight against terrorism. According to most experts, there is currently a trend towards globalization, which has a positive impact on human development. The negative factor is the intensification of contradictions between countries and armed conflicts. Experts emphasize the role of ethical thinking to improve the modern society, experiencing crisis internal and external influences and tests of globalization.
Based on the data of the expert survey conducted in Krasnodar Krai in 2018 (n = 27), an approbation of the original methodology to model human development trends was carried out. According to Merton, “positive type” of interaction prevails more in the region. Most experts note that the level of responsibility in labor activity is sufficient for the stable development of the regional community. However, there is a significant part of the experts who indicate the likelihood of a decline in this indicator in the next 5-7 years, but with the possibility of its growth by 2030. Positive assessment is indicated by the assessment of the level of dissemination of radical ideas, which is so low that it does not interfere with the stable and conflict-free development of the region. At the same time, this situation will continue up to 2030, and, according to some experts, the level of radicalization will even decrease. In addition, experts point out a positive trend in the development of civic identity in polyethnic Krasnodar Krai and the ability to perceive other cultural values. The following trends are also determined based on the data for Krasnodar Krai: 1) decrease in the birth rate, life expectancy and the number of the working-age population with an average ability to work, replenishment of workforce will be due to migration; 2) level of professionalism of personnel is currently below the required. However, there is a tendency to improve the quality of labor resources; 3) segments of permanent employment of the population will show instability (many experts indicated the likelihood of reducing their number); 4) according to experts, there will be some weakening of motivation to achieve goals and readiness to enter into cooperative relations, but over time, the state of these indicators may change for the better; 5) value orientations will be determined to a greater extent by the economic component; 6) ability to perceive cultural values and reproduce cultural patterns of their community will decrease, which may lead to identity crisis; 7) level of inter-ethnic trust and readiness to enter into cooperative relations with the carriers of another religion is somewhat improved and at present this indicator is sufficient for conflict-free development of the region; 8) there is the increase in self-development, self-education and creativity, which can give impetus, including further development of innovative potential. It is also established that the region is undergoing a period of intensive innovation and technical modernization, which certainly gives hope for more favorable forecasts in the future.
Based on the analysis of individual conflict-prone and integration factors for the development of complex South-Russian society, some problems of ensuring regional security in the Black Sea region are considered in the context of countering threats of a sociocultural nature and the danger of ideological extremism.
When considering the current foreign policy and domestic political integration processes in the Russian Black Sea region, their role in the development of human capital in the region becomes apparent. The emphasis is placed on created integration structures, problems and prospects to increase their role in ensuring social and economic growth. The conclusion is formulated about the role of the SCO, BRICS, EAEU, CSTO and the Customs Union as the most significant integration projects in the post-Soviet space, which is basic for the effectiveness of social and economic development of the Russian Black Sea region. The joint activity of states within these structures not only comes to a constructive resolution of conflict situations, but also creates a resource potential for the implementation of international politics.
For a comparative assessment of individual regions of the South of Russia in terms of the level of human development, a mapping of "stable" and "problem" zones of the macroregion was carried out on the basis of the statistical analysis. A comprehensive study was devoted to Krasnodar Krai municipalities in terms of national composition (to assess the level of ethnic conflict in the region), volume of investment in fixed assets (excluding budget funds) per person, and average monthly nominal wage of large, medium enterprises, non-profit organizations (to assess the level of stability of the region). A favorable investment climate is an indicator of stability in the development of a municipality, including the labor market by creating new jobs. The level of wages is considered as a basic indicator of the quality of life of the population, which, according to an expert survey, is one of the most important factors in the development of human potential.
The map data for Krasnodar Krai (Figure
In Krasnodar Krai, the potential conflict zone is Sochi, which has an extremely heterogeneous national composition, in the structure of which the Russians make up only 62%, while along the edge the number of Russians exceeds 85%. In Krasnodar itself, the number of the titular nation approximately corresponds to the statistics on the edge - 88%. The level of inter-ethnic tensions in Krasnodar Krai is low. The researchers pay great attention to the prevention of ethnic conflicts and the problems of countering extremism (Yurchenko, 2015). The category of conflictness in political analysis is examined in connection with identifying the causes and consequences of a new alignment of political forces, a new configuration of interactions between actors in the political process, and studied peculiarities of the region. The state of conflict in peaceful conditions of modern politics is also a normal state, as is the absence of conflict. But it assumes a permanent course of the process of forming some conciliatory practices as a result of the interaction of partners in “negotiations” with a view to making certain political decisions.
According to the study, the following conclusions were formulated:
In the ethnopolitical aspect, it is advisable to position the construction of the Russian civil nation as a supra-ethnic project, involving not the isolated development of people, but their voluntary integration.
The values of peace, inter-ethnic and confessional concord, mutual respect and equality are priorities. The state information policy, as well as the activity of scientific and pedagogical communities, national-cultural associations, ethnic elites should be aimed at maintaining such values.
Regional identity should be rethought as an important resource to strengthen Russian statehood. Consistent policy is essential for sociocultural integration of the Black Sea region based on the priority of Russian national identity, dialogue mechanisms for coordination and representation of ethnic and religious interests in public policy, the consolidation of regional communities.
The survey was conducted within the framework of RFBR project "Conflict and integration factors of human potential development in the South of Russia in the context of new geopolitical challenges", No. 17-03-00802-OGN.
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28 December 2019
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Yurchenko, N., Dontsova, М., Yurchenko, V., & Yurchenko*, I. (2019). Conflict And Integration Factors Of Human Potential Development In South Of Russia. In D. Karim-Sultanovich Bataev, S. Aidievich Gapurov, A. Dogievich Osmaev, V. Khumaidovich Akaev, L. Musaevna Idigova, M. Rukmanovich Ovhadov, A. Ruslanovich Salgiriev, & M. Muslamovna Betilmerzaeva (Eds.), Social and Cultural Transformations in the Context of Modern Globalism, vol 76. European Proceedings of Social and Behavioural Sciences (pp. 3420-3426). Future Academy. https://doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2019.12.04.459