| Predictive background factors |
Events |
Expert assessment of probability of events |
| 1. Public funding of science and education |
1.1. Government funding is increasing |
5% |
| 1.2. Government funding is not increasing significantly |
42% |
| 1.3. Government funding remains at the same level. |
46% |
| 1.4. Government funding is decreasing |
7% |
| 2. International sanctions (access to global technological chains and global markets) |
2.1. Sanctions are gradually being eliminated |
15% |
| 2.2. Sanctions remain at the current level or are being weakened / tightened |
73% |
| 2.3. Sanctions are being significantly tightened |
12% |
| 3. International relations |
3.1. Intensity of international relations is decreasing, prospects for international cooperation are occuring |
23% |
| 3.2. The tension of international relations remains at the existing level which hinders the development of international cooperation |
62% |
| 3.3. International tensions are increasing reducing international cooperation. |
15% |
| 4. The needs of the MIC |
4.1. The needs of the military industrial complex are increasing which increases research funding |
18% |
| 4.2. The needs of the military-industrial complex are increasing, but this does not increase research funding |
32% |
| 4.3. The needs of the MIC remain at the existing level |
45% |
| 4.4. The share of the military industrial complex in the national economy is decreasing |
5% |
| 5. Private investment in science and education |
5.1. The development of the private sector is increasing private investment in science and education. |
9% |
| 5.2. Private investment in science and education is at the current level. |
74% |
| 5.3. Private investment in science and education is decreasing. |
17% |
| 6. The state of the innovation sector of the economy |
6.1. The innovative sector of the economy is growing |
38% |
| 6.2. The innovative sector of the economy is in stagnation |
47% |
| 6.3. The innovative sector of the economy is declining |
15% |
| 7. Needs for development of the green economy and renewable energy sources |
7.1. The government is taking measures aimed at improving the environmental situation and reforming the energy sector in order to abandon the hydrocarbon energy and use renewable energy sources. |
10% |
| 7.2. The government is taking measures aimed at improving the environmental situation, however, it is not taking significant measures aimed at moving to the “green economy” |
67% |
| 7.3. The government does not take measures to improve the environmental situation, move to the "green economy" and use renewable energy sources. |
23% |
| 8. The state of human capital |
8.1. The state of human capital is improving |
28% |
| 8.2. The state of human capital remains at the current level |
47% |
| 8.3. The state of human capital is deteriorating |
25% |
| 9. The quality of education |
9.1. Measures aimed at increasing the quality of education are being implemented |
24% |
| 9.2. The quality of education remains at the current level. |
46% |
| 9.3. The quality of education is deteriorating |
30% |
| 10. Social dominance of survival or self-expression values. |
10.1. Socio-political situation and the mass media contribute to the self-expression values |
22% |
| 10.2. The ratio of survival and self-expression values is preserved |
62% |
| 10.3. Increasing socio-political tensions and political propaganda contribute to the survival values and block the self-expression values |
16% |
| 11. Migration of researchers (“brain drain”) |
11.1. “Brain drain” stops, researchers return to work in their country |
4% |
| 11.2. “Brain drain” is maintained at the current level |
81% |
| 11.3. Brain drain is increasing |
15% |
