Russia In Post-Industrial World: Prognosis-Conception

Abstract

The organization of Eurasian (economic) union in Astana in October 2000 is not a caprice of «the Kremlin elite», but a natural stage of the world historical process. The logic of historical development will demand Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Korea, and Japan to join this block. (It is not necessary but probable and desirable expanding of this community at the expense of India, Afghanistan, and Iran). Two projects will be a real step on the way of realizing this conception. This is a project of the bridge to Sakhalin and a tunnel between Sakhalin and Hokkaido. As a result, the Trans Siberian railway will join with the Japanese railways. It is also necessary to have the project of joining the Trans Siberian railway with Trans-Korean railway. The world community has no other way out than building the structure of the future safe world by joint efforts. In this future world Russia is «doomed» by the role of the third (different race) power center of Eurasia (equally with the European Union and China) that minimizes race tension between the Europeoids and Mongoloids poles of the planet.

Keywords: Eurasian union«Eurasian transport corridor»Inter-race warRussia

Introduction

If a well-known Gegel’s law «Denial by Denial» is being applied to the history of the mankind, one could single out three big stages (Gegel’s triad).

The first stage is formation of the first human being as a biological species that begins from appearance of proto-people and finishes with division of labor and emergence of the first states. The second one is a stage of «exploitation of man by man» and the development of productive forces. The third stage will start when the world enters the postindustrial period of robot-production, the full automatization of manufacturing, and dehumanization of the production sphere, when a person becomes free of daily work for the sake of earning his living.

The second stage denies the first one (primitive communism). The third stage is the denial of the second one (exploitation, the struggle of classes), which is the return to the first one on the new base of higher quality.

Problem Statement

As it is known that confrontation, struggle are the law of motion (development) of both biological and social forms of substance. So, each of the mentioned stages must correspond to a dominant type of conflict.

The first stage is a classless type and so there could be no class struggle then. There were inter-tribe wars. But whether they were of dominant type of conflict influencing upon the mankind as a whole, whether they changed its character, the geography of settlement? It is doubtful. In the base of such conflicts, as a rule, there were non-economic factors. There was no valuable property (the principle «Omnia mea mecum porto» dominated there). Capture of slaves was senseless. While being in Micronesia, Miklukho-Maklai (1993) marked: «Wars are very often on Archipelago; the most insignificant reasons are considered to be sufficient for their breaking». The most interesting fact is that during the war «women and even men could safely visit enemy’s villages and even live there». It is probable that the sense of such «senseless» wars lies in the necessity of regulating the quantity of population within limited territory.

In the book «Yanoama» there is a description of life of South-American Indians (living as if in Stone Age), among whom the author lived for 20 years (from 1937 till 1957). This tribe constantly was in conflict with three other tribes. The reasons were almost always the attempts (often successful) of seizing women to marry. The tribes entered temporary alliances with each other that disintegrated later and appeared in new combination, though these wars were quite serious, with many victims. It looked like children quarrels with no reasons and consequence. For example, the revenge was trampling down crops of tobacco, banana plantations of the enemy tribe (Biokka, 1972).

Just the fact that there was constant exchange of women in the form of their’ seizure means that these tribes did not consider each other to be «alien» in a full sense of the word. Their permanent conflicts, probably, were forms of natural selection – intra specific struggle. Certainly, in the animal world, inter-specific struggle represents the very struggle because of female for the right of continuation because of clan. It is true that in the herd, the struggle of rivals practically never ends in murder of the outsiders. Man went further in such cases. But it could be explained: animals as a rule, do not know such notion as revenge. But an Indian who lost his wife, sister, and daughter tried to kill his enemy very often, though in order to “save his own face”. If one considers wars between tribes within one race during the Neolithic period to be inter-specific struggle, it would be logical to suppose that the inter-specific struggle was also characteristic for people, who had not yet broken the umbilical cord connecting them with the animal world. This would be only inter-race confrontation. Taking into consideration the scientific knowledge of the world and mankind, the faith in totems (the origin of every tribe of concrete animal), one could suppose that for white people, the man of black skin was a creation of the other species (if it is not the source of existing monsters, cyclops, trolls, etc). Distinguished Soviet ethnographer Alekseev (1972) has the same opinion: «The conflicts of peoples of different physical types took place... in the process of distant migrations. As a result of such collisions there was the gradually formed sensation that those being in contrast to a physical type were bitter enemies than those who looked alike».

Studying the life of American Indians, ethnographers try to recreate forms of family and social life of the primitive man, his beliefs, his conception of the world. In this aspect one North Indian legend on the creation of the world is very characteristic. Gods modeled people out of clay and put them for kilning. Those, who were taken out in the shortest time, were not brought up to the mark and were pale pink colored (the Europeans). Those, who were kilning for normal time, were of an excellent brick-red tint (the Indians). And, at last, those, who were taken out too late for Gods became absorbed in conversation, were charred (the Negroes) (Taylor, 1989). There was the origin of condescending scorn manner in treating the people of other race in the society where it seems to be no objective prerequisites to racism. In the opinion of an outstanding ethnographer Edward Taylor «crafty and malicious dwarfs in Scandinavian sagas none other than population, spreading in the North Europe in ancient time. The Europeoids considered them in such a way».

Inter-race confrontations for the lack of weapons of mass annihilation were not wars for extermination and «for forcing out» alien ethnos, struggle of forming areas of race-settling. It led to forcing out one race by the other, re-allotment of Eurasian continent, settling America and Australia. It is known that in the Neolithic period, the Europeoids lived in Minussinsk steppes on the vast spaces from Krasnoyarsk to the frontier between Khakassiya and Tuva. This was not the European enclave in the country of the Mongoloids; such Europeoids lived in the 3-2d thousand B.C. on the Alta, in Kazakhstan. Since the upper Paleolithic period, it had been a powerful migration of the Europeoids to the east. In the Bronze Age, even Tuva was the land of the Europeoids. There was such conformity to natural laws. At the Age of Bronze and Neolith the Euripides had spread to the east, though steppe zone up to the Western Mongolia. And in the Neolithic period the Mongoloids had developed the northern regions of the West-Siberian taiga and European woods up to the Baltic (modern Latgally are descendants of them) and even the Central Germany in the Neolithic period. Nevertheless the great migration of peoples at the turn of A.D., having thrown off the Europeoids to their fore-mother-land, changed the limits of race areas in favor of the Mongoloids, dotted their «I» and crossed their «t’s» (in this territorial argument).

The most ancient Negroids (to be more exact – Australoids), in the opinion of V. P. Alekseev, left «the central areas of the western Europe to the east in the Paleolithic period, being forced out by more specialized forms of industry. They yielded their territories to the races being formed on their own base» (Alekseev, 1972).

The Negroid-Australoid race developed a tropical zone. This area is Africa, the south of India, the South-East Asia, New Guinea, Australia.

In the opinion of American scholar R. Fidler, «if two or more ethnic groups with identical way of exploitation try to use one and the same resource niches of the eco-system, the conflict between them should threaten their independent existence as discrete ethnic units. Stronger groups would dominate over weaker ones; the minorities would be forced out, assimilated or annihilated».

Of course, race migrations (confrontations) did not lead to the complete forcing out (or annihilation) of the aboriginal ethnic groups out of their territories. In the process of cross-race contacts, there were formed intermediate race types, for examples, Veddy in the south of India, Khanty and Mansyin western Siberia, and so on. Nevertheless the dominating tendency of the epoch of forming man as a biological type was race divergence (differentiation), but not convergence and appearance in the Paleolithic period of two ancient branches of one stem (the Europeoids and Negroids), and the second stem (the Mongoloids) corroborates this thesis. All three race types have been preserved till nowadays, and even strengthened their race independence creating mainly homogeneous states.

The second stage in the development of the humankind started with formation of the first class states in the valleys of the great rivers. It continued at present time too. Speaking about the dominating type of conflict for this stage (and basing on Gegel’s law), one could establish the change of race (non-economic) antagonism by economic one – class struggle, conflicts between states, pursuing economic aims: seizure of slaves, plunder of material values, laying under tribute, seizure of colonies, and markets... The fact that these antagonisms were not, as a rule, of race character is corroborated by reality of slave owning states. In ancient Greece, Ancient Rome there were no higher and lower races (slaves were white, yellow and black). The society was divided into slaves and free men not according to the race sign. We could not find any reference on physical appearance of a man as a sub-stantiation of his slave status in literary and legal work of that time. Ancient thinkers show not a hint of indulgence to the representatives of the other race that is reflected in the legend of the Northern American Indians mentioned above. The distinctive features of Christianity, arisen at the turn of centuries in the national Rome Empire were the universalism and the principle of everyone’s equality before God.

In the Mediaeval period, the Pope gave his blessing to murdering of the Saracens not because of their dark skin (the Arabs), but for they were adherents of a different faith. Plunder and murdering of the Indians by Conquistadores took place not for they were of different race, but for they had got gold and were defenseless. Let us remember the alliance of Alexander Nevsky and the Horda (Horde) against the Teutons that was of no racial character. And at last, let us remember the structure of the coalitions fighting against each other during the Second World War. On one hand, there was Japan, Germany, Italy and, on the other hand – Russia, China, the USA.

While transitioning to the third stage in the process of the further development of capitalism, civilized differences would be reduced. Market economy inevitably leads to the growth of the individual freedom (including in the Far East). At the same time in the West, there are processes of strengthening of state part in regulating eco-nomic processes and increasing «social character» of economy. There is direct evidence of convergence of two social-economic systems. And, at last, the further robotization of industry on account of the common natural development of the technique led to the similarity of structures and processes both in the West and in the Far East; the civilization differences would wear off utterly in fact.

At the same time, man becomes free of economic dependence, goes out of «the sphere of direct manufacture», as if in the Neolithic period the humankind broke chains connecting them with Nature (going over from hunting and gathering to agriculture and cattle breeding). «The Kingdom of Freedom begins really only where there is no work being dictated by need and outer expediency. Therefore according to the nature of things it lies outside of the sphere of proper production».

It would mean that the mankind entered into the third stage of its development so called postindustrial society. Now, if once more based on Hegel’s law, the race confrontation would come forward (the dominating conflict of the primitive society) for the third component of Hegel’s triad, the first one is repeated only at the other qualification level (the reason for confrontation could become a sharp growth of population). In the struggle for place «under the Sun», it is the racial factor that would divide the humankind into two camps for a new re-division of the world.

Could we now see the indications of changing national mentality, corroborating this thesis? World outlook of the Eastern man is theoretically hierarchical that is the consequence of thousand-year traditions of the Eastern despotism, state serfdom, general dependence. The Japanese see the other nations being as if on the steps of peculiar hierarchic stair (of not racial character). They consider the Chinese to be equal to themselves, the Koreans are a little bit lower them, the Philippines are almost «savage people». The Europeans have got their own place in this table of ranks. Such order was just official in Manchoukuo: the first place – the Japanese, the 2d – the Koreans, the 3d – the Chinese.

Even the Japanese themselves are not equal. The Japanese of the center of Empire treated re-emigrants from colonies (after 1945) as strangers. In Japan, there are more than 700 thousand Koreans, but none of them is a member of the Parliament. For example, the President of Peru was Japanese, and there are deputies of the Russian Supreme Soviet and Duma - Koreans. A Japanese child unlike a Russian one knows who is a stranger and who is not. By the way, a stranger may be a Korean boy and a European boy as well. A stranger even excellently speaking Japanese will never become the leader of the Japanese children collective; he would not even be its full member. (well-known Russian politician Irina Khakamada, her father is Japanese, in childhood was a leader of the Russian children-terrors in districts near Moscow). This is not racial feeling, it is sooner a feeling of group(herd). As for a Japanese child, it is very important to feel – his family where a child is protected, his school (the change of school is almost a tragedy to a Japanese child), his firm, his country. Nevertheless this group feeling could grow into the racial feeling under certain circumstances (race is a group too). In 1953, 20% of the Japanese considered themselves to be high (selected) ethnos, in 1986 — already 71% (Gaykin, 1988).

As Hegel stated: «The Eastern nation limited religion with them only, and religion is completely tied together with one nationality. All religions penetrated to the Roman Empire and were not considered there as national, but in the East, religion is entirely tied with nationality. The Chinese, the Persians have got their state religion that is only for them».

So in such possible race confrontation, the black race together with the white one would be confronted with the Yellow race on the one side of the barricades. As it is known, the white and black races are, speaking figuratively, two branches of one stem while the Mongoloid represent the other stem. All two stems – the ancient Australopithecus and ancient Cinanthropus – had certain morphological differences.

Research Questions

There are a lot of prognoses concerning the future of the world and Russia’s place in it. They are Huntington’s conception of war of civilizations and surreal suggestion of academician E. Primakov on the possibility of the Union of Russia, China and India. As for the second conception, it reminds the words of Gogol’s bride that it would be good to take the nose of Petr Ivanovich, the height of Nikolay Sergeevich and money of Ivan Ivanovich and the bridegroom would be ideal.

If one is realistic, one ought to admit that China would consent to play only a dominating part in any kind of the union, Russia would be satisfied with the role of an equal partner as a minimum and never agrees for the part of «being driven». India has too serious disagreement with Beijing that led, at best, to «poor peace». Of course, it is better than «good quarrel». Thus, «a wolf, a goat and cabbage» could not find themselves in one boat. By the way, both Beijing and Delhi denied such perspective at once.

The more probable variant as joining of India to the Euro-Asian union – Russia, the Central Asia, Korea, and Japan. So called «strategic partnership» of Russia and China is a temporary, in many respects, emergency alliance of two weak states yet, and probably each of them would be a superpower – a force center in the future.

Purpose of the Study

Let us look at Huntington prognosis. If my conception of racial wars, there is a prognosis of events in post-industrial world (since the end of the 21s’ century). Huntington deals with the fate of the humankind in the 21st century. His inter-civilization wars represent the last global confrontation of modern society where dominating conflict is an economic one. Civilization is religion, culture, traditions, being by superstructure connected with forms of economic life that in its turn is determined by geography, climate. Complex robotization will lead, firstly, to leveling of the specificity of economic forms, such as European, Chinese or Japanese models. Secondly, «leaving of the proper sphere of production by man » will free him of economic dependence, and so, by being mediated - of ties with concrete civilization and will raise his world-character status. Globalization partly leads to the unification of spiritual life (the youth is listening to the American music in Teheran and Tokyo). Islam in its conservative variant does not correspond to the ideology of capitalism (with its individualism and global character). That is why, the process of developing market-economy will result in washing out strict outlines of Islam foundation, rejection of its most odious postulates. In Algeria the adherents of Fundamental Islam are considered to be the principal obstacle on the way to progress.

The Moslem world is homogeneous by no means. The most Near Eastern countries are oriented to the union with the West, even despite the strategic alliance of the USA with Israel. In the Central Asian countries, the struggle against Moslem Fundamentalism is an urgent problem. Conflict of civilizations can take place sooner as a local reaction (paroxism) to suppression of national specificity. But in this case it would not be too strong.

Inter-race war at the end of the 21st century looks more real. If globalization is a natural historical process — the prevention of inter-race confrontation must be system policy on creating the universal world. The first stage is the creation of inter-state unions (the united Europe is real now). The second is the integration of these unions in the common world formation. At the end of the 21st century (if man is out of production sphere), there is a possible variant of creation of not united world, but two antagonistic worlds — on the planet of the Mongoloid and Europeoid ones. As it coincides with the changes of dominating conflict from economic to racial one, race war is inevitable.

As the main antagonists in this war would be the Mongoloids and Europeoids, the main theatre of military operations will be Eurasia. The race war will become the most disastrous conflict; as compared to it, the World War II seems to be division maneuvers. This war will pursue no one’s aim of the previous conflicts (seizure of slaves, material values, creation of empires, and the change of the social system). The principal (and the only) aim of this war will be complete annihilation of the race-antagonist.

It is Russia that must play an integration role (the West –the East) for it has got frontier with main Mongoloid states and for the Trans-Siberian railroad is going through its territory that is a ready artery, connecting Europe with the Middle Asia and the Far East. It is necessary to make efforts to restore the Trans- Siberian rail freight turnover of the 80s of the 20th century. This is a question not only of today economic profit of exploitation of the railway, but a strategic plan connected with the future of the planets and Russia’s place in it. The part, played by Trans-Siberian railway will be in «correct» organization of European space. Correspondingly the disorganization role is meant for so called «Eurasian transport corridor» that is planned to build a circular road in Russia (Figure 01 ). This project, connected with «Tumangan» project, is supported by the Organization of United nations (OUN). The ОUN’s report concerning the Tumangan project goes: «The significance of this route is that it will pass through the North-East and Central Asia» (Gaykin, 1994).

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In fact there is nothing good in it. Building a transport corridor around Russia, will first of all unite the Mongoloid world, but not all Eurasia. In the opinion of the authors of the project, the Eurasian transport corridor is finished with megapolis in the mouth of the Tumangan river. However, as a result it could be the capital of the Mongoloid world.

Research Methods

The author apply system and structural-functional approaches in the study of social political processes that still remains one of the leading algorithms to identify common elements, relations and functions in political process, combining all of these in the concept of the political system. The political system is a constantly changing, functioning, dynamic system.

The modeling method uses models of real objects to study their most significant characteristics. Constructing ideal simplifications is modeled through a deductive analysis of real objects. In reality, a complex generalization study of a large amount of data by many parameters appears to be one of widespread important factors to be used while modeling, especially in social objects research. This approach requires a strict selection of theoretical constructs, on the one hand, and empirical methods – on the other. Thus, the connection between theory and empirical data is one of modeling problems.

Within the study, the author conducted literature review, used secondary sources, examined primary sources and carried out synthesis of the literature. References to preliminary sources help to draw up a comprehensive list of primary material relevant to the topic, which being assembled and processed with a critical approach, allowing a deeper insight into the subject and its broader understanding.

Findings

In the European system, Russia must be the third integrative center (besides the European Community and China), while connected with its Mongoloid states of the Central Asia, Korea and Japan and falling behind China in its natural striving for creation of the union of the Mongoloid states: China, Korea, Japan, Mongolia, the Central Asia.

The process of forming the common world will be of two stages: the first one is the creation of blocks, the second — their amalgamation into the common global body. In the process of this crystallization, it is very important not to interfere with the creation of race-homogeneous unions, connecting states different in race aspect into common economic systems. An excellent example of such organic union is the former Russian Empire, where there were active privileges of local elites, supporting Empire, and there were practical equality of all nations and the common economic space.

The West, trying to isolate Russia, prepares the second Munchen. Doctor Hains Timmerman from Koln Institute of Study of Eastern Europe in his article memorandum writes: «The aim of the Western policy must be not the artificial construction of the Union of Independent States, but support of such unions as Guam or the Central-Asian economic space (Kazakhstan, Kirgizia, Uzbekistan — V.G.) that are forming in its frames. Thus, the support of the project «Eurasian transport corridor» must be reinforced» (Timmerman, 1998).

While depriving Russia of everything, the Europeans will collide with a more dangerous adversary – the powerful Mongoloid block created under active part of the Organization of United Nations. The West must realize that those imaginary gains it could get if it excludes Russia from the integration system «West - East» will lead this process at a dead lock and hit by boomerang the West itself.

Russia’s transformation into the kernel of the European Union is more necessary for Europe than Russia itself. In the case of race war and exchange of nuclear blows between NATO and the Far Eastern Mongoloid block, densely populated Europe would have no chance to survive. The Far East could have disastrous consequences too. In the case of the atomic catastrophe, the only vast Russian space (Siberia) could guarantee the life to the population to a certain degree.

Conclusion

The organization of Eurasian (economic) union in Astana in October 2000 is not a caprice of «the Kremlin elite», but a natural stage of the world historical process. The logic of historical development will demand Uzbekistan, Mongolia. Korea, and Japan to join this block. (It is not necessary, but probable and desirable expanding of this community at the expense of India, Afghanistan, and Iran). Two projects will be a real step on the way to realizing this conception. This is a project of the bridge to Sakhalin and a tunnel between Sakhalin and Hokkaido. As a result, the Trans Siberian railway will join the Japanese railways. It is also necessary to have the project of joining the Trans Siberian railway with Trans-Korean railway. The world community has no other way out than building the structure of the future safe world by joint efforts. In this future world, Russia is «doomed» by the role of the third (different race) power center of Eurasia (equally with the European Union and China) that minimizes race tension between the Europeoids and Mongoloids poles of the planet.

The fact that this conception is not a chimera is corroborated by different statements of distinguished leaders, mainly, of the countries of the foreign Far East. So, in 1964 Chu Tuk He, the governor of the Korean national district in People’s Republic of China, declared: «There is a necessity of common struggle of Korea, Japan, and Vietnam. For this, it is necessary to study the ways of strengthening ties between these countries. They have got common cultural traditions... It is necessary to establish active friendship with Japan» (Gaykin, 1994).

In June of 1998 in the interview of the Japanese newspaper «Asahi», a well-known Chinese writer of the Korean origin, Kim Chekuk, said: «For overcoming economic difficulties Japan, China and Korea must combine their efforts and this cooperation will define the future of North East Asia» (Kim, 1998).

The variant of the «future», based on the creation of race unions would rather leads to split of the world (though in principle, there may be a variant of creative race unions with their subsequent integration, but in such case the race pendulum could swing to confrontation). Much would depend on the fact that which of two processes would end earlier – man’s going out of «the sphere of proper production» or reducing «the world to a common economic denominator». If the first process is going faster, there is real perspective of race unions and balancing the world on the brink of war. That is the priority task is the creation of the union of different races. In such situation, the subjective (human) factor is of great significance. Like that, a stone, having rolled downhill, provokes snow avalanche. That is why it is very important to have an oriented system policy of organizing the universal world that would result in turning «race avalanches» into necessary and safe for the mankind direction.

References

1. Alekseev, V. (1972). In search of ancestors. Moskva: Sovetskaya Rossiya.
2. Biokka, E. (1972). Yanoama. Moskva: Mysl.
3. Gaykin, V. (1988). Traditions and Reality. Have a map of the Pacific, 7, 115-123.
4. Gaykin, V, (1994). Tumangan. Russia and ATR, 2, 50-56.
5. Miklukho-Maklay, N.N. (1993), Compositions. Moskva: Nauka, vol. 3.
6. Taylor, E. B. (1989). Primitive culture. Moskva: Politizdat.
7. Timmerman, K., (1998). The processes of disintegration and reorganization in the CIS. World Economy and International Relations, 12, 42-49.