Evaluation Of Strategic Planning Of The Regional Economic Development In Russia

The article assesses the quality of seven documents of strategic planning of the socio-economic development on the example of the Chechen Republic. The socio-economic development strategy for the period up to 2025 does not take into account the influence of external and internal factors on the national economy; in the long-term socio-economic development forecasts, there are difficulties in predicting the structure of the gross regional product, the structure of investment in fixed assets, as well as the level of employment and wages; the long-term budget forecast shows that the forecasting mechanism is based on different growth rates of the regional economy (linear growth models), and does not take into account the cyclical nature of economic development under the influence of external and internal factors; many measures provided for in the social economic development plan have not been implemented yet; there are no program-targeted instruments. Regional territorial planning schemes were adopted in a number of Russian regions. The strategic planning documents for the socio-economic and scientific-technological development of the Russian region are not interrelated. The need for a long-term forecast of the scientific and technological development of the Russian region is substantiated. It should be a strategic plan for the balanced development of the region that provides a link between science and production in a territorial context, and between federal and regional scientific and technological centers of Russia. Conclusions, proposals and recommendations for improving the methodology of strategic planning for the balanced development of the Russian region are formulated. 2357-1330 © 2021 Published by European Publisher.

Until January 1, 2015, in market Russia, a system of indicative management measures was used. It The strategic plan of socio-economic development of the Chechen Republic includes seven documents.

Problem Statement
Opportunities for the effective modernization and more sustainable development of the economy of modern Russia are associated with the problems of strategic planning of the development of its regions.
It is the quality of the seven documents of strategic planning that is the main problem in implementing the strategic planning system. Therefore, it is very important to assess and analyze the state of development of all these strategic planning documents.

The SED strategy of Russia
According to Federal Law No. 172-FZ of June 28, 2014, the SED strategy of the Russian Federation is being developed for a period not exceeding the long-term forecast of development (State Duma, 2014). Proceeding from this federal law, the SED strategy of the region should be developed within these boundaries. The first attempt to solve the problem of economic and social development in the Chechen Republic was undertaken with a coverage horizon of 2012-2025. According to the order of the Government of the Chechen Republic of June 20, 2012 N 185-r, the Strategy for the Social Development of the Chechen Republic up to 2025 was approved (Government of the Chechen Republic, 2012). It includes the following four sections: the Strategic Diagnostics of the Chechen Republic -characteristics, position assessment, spatial analysis, and strategic factors of development; Strategic doctrine for the development of the Chechen Republic -a tree of strategic goals, scenarios and stages of development, development indicators, resource provision; Mechanisms for the implementation of the SED Strategy in the social, economic, innovation, and infrastructural areas. The system of measures for the implementation of the SED Strategy, including projects, events and initiatives. https://doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2021.11.207 Corresponding Author: Alkhozur Kharonovich Tsakaev Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of the conference eISSN:  1570 The Chechen SED Strategy for the period up to 2025 provides for two scenarios -baseline and optimistic (target) ones. The absence of a pessimistic (conservative) version indicates that the Ministry of Economic and Territorial Development and Trade of the Chechen Republic did not take into account the influence of negative factors, causes and sources on the SED and negative consequences of Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization and other external shocks, as well as exacerbation of internal problems: a rise in prices, a depreciation of the currency, an increase in the unemployment rate, etc. It was envisaged that the SED Strategy will be implemented in five steps. At the first stage (2012-2013), the institutional foundations and conditions for the security and legalization of business will be laid; within the second stage (2014)(2015), system investment projects will be launched and implemented, which will lay the foundations for better living standards; at the third stage (2016)(2017), the foundations of the industrial development of the region will be laid; at the fourth stage (2018)(2019)(2020), the transition to a new post-industrial model of the regional development will be carried out; at the fifth stage (2021-2025), the positions of the region with be consolidated with high development rates. At each stage, the regional executive bodies planned specific measures and targeted actions to achieve these results. The Chechen Republic has to become a region with a high quality of life, a low unemployment rate, a donor of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation with a modern developed infrastructure and a high-quality shocks. The same problem is with the applied PEST analysis, which does not take into account both the intensification of external shocks and internal problems -a growth of the unemployment rate, a fall in real incomes of the population, etc. Section "2.1. Strategic goals, tasks, directions" lacks a hierarchical approach to short-term and long-term goals. Section "2.2. Stages of implementation, development scenarios, results" contains only three stages: the first stage, 2021-2024, provides for the" capitalization of the existing advantages of the Chechen Republic; the second stage, 2025-2027, involves the-https: //doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2021.11.207 Corresponding Author: Alkhozur Kharonovich Tsakaev Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of the conference eISSN: 2357-1330 1571 transformation of reference points of an economic growth in the Chechen Republic; the third stage, 2028-2035, involves the international integration of the Republic. Four scenarios were formulated: Target scenario "Best conditions for growth" -cancellation of mutual sanctions and inflow of investments; Scenario "Growth through the internationalization of Russia" -cancellation of sanctions and strengthening of the integration processes; Scenario "Growth due to the internal efficiency" -import substitution while maintaining sanctions; Scenario "Stagnation" -increased sanctions and capital outflows.

Long-term forecast of the SED
The SED forecast for the period up to 2035 (MEDT, 2018) was analyzed in terms of the structure of the gross regional product and investment in fixed assets, as well as the level of employment and wages. Among the serious omissions in the long-term forecast is the lack of the forecast of the GRP structure in the context of economic types; there is no account / table for forecasting GRP by years, but there is only a final indicator.
The second omission is the lack of the structure of investments in fixed assets by economic activities, and their share in the GRP. Thus, according to the conservative version of the forecast, over the The average annual number of people employed, and the number of new jobs will increase by 56.9-61.9 thousand by 2024. At the same time, according to the ILO methodology, the level of unemployment will be 83.4 thousand people, and according to the conservative forecast, it will be 83.5 thousand people, that is, it will decrease by 1.7-1.8 thousand people or 1.97-2.09 % to the 2019 level.

The long-term forecast of the SED for the Chechen Republic
In accordance with Article 11 of the Federal Law on Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation Meanwhile, it should be noted that within the medium-term forecast and key long-term forecast indicators, in form 2n new, the parameters of budget forecast for the medium and long term are presented.
But even these forecasts contain the data of the consolidated budget of the Chechen Republic reflected in the documents of medium and long-term forecasts compiled in 2018 for the first three years: 2019, 2020 and 2021. The forecasting mechanism is based on different growth rates of the regional economy -linear growth models, and does not take into account the cyclical nature of economic development under the influence of external and internal factors. Thus, for 2020, all versions of the medium-and long-term forecast envisaged an increase in the revenues of the consolidated budget of the Chechen Republic. In fact, in 2020, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other external shocks, there was a significant decrease in both tax and non-tax revenues, and a reduction in the financial assistance from the federal budget through grants, subventions and subsidies.

The medium term forecast of the SED for the Chechen Republic
There is no medium-term SED strategy for 2019, 2020 and 2021 on the website of the Ministry of First of all, we are talking about both gross errors in forecast estimates and socio-economic development indicators. This is especially noticeable in the comparative analysis of the forecast and actual data of the NER CR for 2012-2020. Unfortunately, this measure and many other strategically important activities of the Plan have not been implemented.

The spatial planning scheme for the Chechen Republic
According to the Decree of the Government of the Chechen Republic of September 21, 2010 No. 154, the Territorial Planning Scheme of the Chechen Republic was approved. It was drawn up in the absence of the long-term Strategy and any methodological materials. It includes schemes for the planned development and placement of specially protected natural areas; changes in the boundaries of agricultural land and the boundaries of agricultural land in the composition of agricultural land; the planned location of capital construction projects, including energy systems, transport systems, linear and other objects. The Strategy reflects parameters of long-term planning of development of the regional infrastructure (transport, engineering and social) and planning of territories for the establishment of functional zones, zones of the planned location of capital construction objects for regional needs, zones with special conditions. https: //doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2021.11.207 Corresponding Author: Alkhozur Kharonovich Tsakaev Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of the conference eISSN:  1574 A more detailed assessment of the economic and legal aspects of strategic planning is presented in (Tsakaev, 2020). That is, the content of the basic variant has been changed -the "conservative" external conditions have been preserved, but there is no longer any "internal factors"; the conservative option has been developed on the basis of conservative estimates of economic growth rates, taking into account the possibility of a deterioration in external conditions; the target option is also somewhat different -instead of a "significant deterioration" of external economic and other conditions", "the possibility of deterioration of external conditions" should be taken into account, while changes in internal conditions should not to be considered (Government of the Russian Federation, 2019).

Purpose of the Study
The quality of strategic planning of the socio-economic development of national-territorial and territorial public-law formations is crucial. The purpose of the study was to assess and analyze the state of development of all seven strategic planning documents for the Chechen Republic. These are the Strategy of socio-economic development; the long-term forecast of socio-economic development up to 2035; the long-term budget forecast; the medium-term forecast of socio-economic development for 2019, 2020 and 2021; the plan for implementing the strategy of socio-economic development; government programs; the spatial planning scheme.

Research Methods
The general scientific methods of cognition -observation and collection of factual material, scientific abstraction, analysis and synthesis of the strategic SED planning -were used. Aggravated internal conditions and growing external factors were analyzed. https://doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2021.11.207 Corresponding Author: Alkhozur Kharonovich Tsakaev Selection and peer-review under  Evaluation and analysis of the long-term SED forecast identified inconsistencies in forecasting both the structure of GRP and investment in fixed assets, and the level of employment and wages.
Assessment and analysis showed that there are problems in the development of the strategy by the regional executive authorities, including the Ministry of Finance of the Chechen Republic. Assessment of the activities of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the Chechen Republic in terms of medium-term forecasting showed that the medium-term SED forecast is presented only in the form 2n new, which reflects the main indicators of development of the Chechen Republic for the next three years.
As for the Plan for implementing the SED strategy for the period up to 2025, an analysis showed that many planned investment measures have not been implemented, which raises doubts about the feasibility of the strategic planning document.
Evaluation and analysis of the state programs of the Chechen Republic identified the lack of program-targeted instruments. As for the SED strategy, the analysis identified problems in the compilation of maps and schemes and the lack of territorial delimitation between state and municipal public law formations. With regard to the methodological recommendations of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, there is a conflict between the forecast options.

Conclusion
The relevance of regulatory documents for strategic planning has changed due to the exacerbation There is an imbalance, non-coincidence of the data of the regional budget forecast for the period up to 2029 with the data of the consolidated budget, reflected in the medium-term regional forecast of development for the period up to 2024.
It is necessary to revise the forecast indicators for the socio-economic development of the region for the period up to 2024, as well as to revise the main indicators of socio-economic development of the https: //doi.org/10.15405/epsbs.2021.11.207 Corresponding Author: Alkhozur Kharonovich Tsakaev Selection and peer-review under responsibility of the Organizing Committee of the conference eISSN:  1576 region for the period up to 2035. These documents should take into account structural changes caused by external and internal factors. In addition, there are serious inconsistencies in the forecast calculations undermining the confidence in a medium-term forecast for the development of a region.
It is important to link the parameters of investment growth with the forecast growth of jobs and production volumes for each sector of the regional economy within the forecast of socio-economic development for the current and medium term. It is also important to link the forecast of investment in fixed assets with the forecast of growth in the value and changes in the sectoral structure of the GRP of the region of the Russian Federation.
It is necessary to develop a real strategy for the growth of investment in fixed assets which helps to increase facilities and capacities for economic activities, providing a significant increase in the regional tax potential.
Due to the lack of target-oriented tools for implementing state programs, it is almost impossible to ensure transparency of the implementation process and assess the effectiveness of state programs of the region. In order to ensure the transparency of assessment of the state programs, program-targeted tools should be developed for each regional program.
The events of 2020 indicate the need for a radical revision of the strategy for social and economic development of the Chechen Republic for the period up to 2025 and development and adoption of the SED Strategy for the period up to 2035. These documents should account for external and internal factors, while maintaining three scenarios for the regional development.
Among the internal and external factors are the state of scientific and technological development of the region. Therefore, the "The long-term scientific and technological development of the region" document should be included in the number of the main documents of strategic SED planning.